Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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901 FXUS62 KTBW 170722 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 322 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 A closed upper low and surface low spins north of Bermuda with a cold front extending southward through the western Atlantic, then turning westward over Florida and extending further westward along the northern gulf coast to Louisiana. A MCS on the western periphery of this front is producing some severe weather from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle. This system will traverse eastward over the next 12-24 hours, slightly weakening as it moves near northern Florida on Friday. A chance of showers and a stray storm will be possible over the Nature Coast through the afternoon hours as this system moves over northern Florida and the frontal boundary lifts northward. There`s a Marginal Risk for severe storms over parts of the Nature Coast for today. Some seabreeze showers and storms will also be possible over the interior and east coast. On Saturday, the front lifts farther northward over the southeast U.S. Abundant moisture on the south side of this front will lead to scattered showers and storms on Saturday with the highest chances over the Nature Coast. By Sunday morning, a weak low develops near the Carolinas with a cold front extending southwestward across Florida. This will bring another round of showers and storms during the day on Sunday. The front will linger across southern Florida through Tuesday with daily showers and storms possible over the southern counties and interior. High pressure builds into the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday with drier air and lower rain chances by mid week and continuing through the end of next week. Near average to slightly above average temperatures are expected through the period. Heat indices will reach 100-104 degrees over the next couple of days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR conditions with light and variable winds expected early this morning, then increasing SW around 8-12 knots by mid morning and continuing through the afternoon. Will hold off mentioning any weather at all terminals at this time as it appears most rain chances will remain well to the north over the Nature Coast and interior. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Southerly winds less than 15 knots and 2-3 foot seas persist through Saturday. A chance of showers and a stray storm will be possible over the northeast gulf on Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary lifts over the area. Winds become more southwesterly on Sunday ahead of the next cold front moving through during the day on Sunday bringing increasing rain and storm chances to the eastern gulf waters. Lingering rain chances will stick around through Tuesday primarily over the southeastern gulf waters. Winds and seas remain below headline criteria through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 No fire weather concerns expected as abundant moisture remains over the area with daily showers and storms possible over the next few days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 79 91 78 / 10 0 30 50 FMY 92 78 95 78 / 10 0 10 30 GIF 94 73 97 74 / 20 10 40 40 SRQ 91 78 93 77 / 10 0 20 40 BKV 92 72 93 72 / 20 0 40 50 SPG 89 81 90 80 / 10 0 30 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley