836
FXUS62 KTBW 170028
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
828 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Current forecast reasoning remains unchanged, however did add
patchy overnight fog potential to SWFL counties generally away
from the coast with deeper moisture evident in latest obs and
meso analysis. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s along with PWATs
1.5-2 inches across those areas, coupled with additional residual
moisture from today`s rainfall which totaled 1-2 inches in part of
Lee County in particular, will present favorable conditions for
at least some areas of patchy fog and low clouds developing
overnight as winds drop to only a few mph. Patchy fog and low
clouds also appear possible across Nature Coast locations where
calm winds coupled with increasing moisture/PWATs as the boundary
lifts back north across the peninsula will also create conducive
conditions for development. Any impacts to visibility will improve
during the morning as heating sets in, following another humid
night for areas south of I-4 with lows in the 70s, with areas
northward likely a few degrees cooler in the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Flow aloft over the region this afternoon has become nearly zonal,
with the surface frontal boundary sitting across the Florida
peninsula. South of this boundary and mainly over Lee county,
some showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible
while relatively drier air has taken hold to the north. This
boundary will start to lift back northward tonight as another
storm system begins to develop to our west. Low-level flow turns
back to southwest through Friday, with increasing moisture once
again. The main question for tomorrow`s forecast will be rain
chances. It would make sense that moisture pooling along the
boundary would lead to some rain chances and a few other higher-
res models are indicating a weakening MCS moving across the
northern Gulf coast region, all of which would likely lead to some
shower activity and maybe a few storms. Whatever does develop
would then generally push inland with the southwest winds in
place.

For Saturday, southwest flow continues across the local area, with
warm and humid conditions persisting. Some showers and storms can be
expected in the afternoon, but these will again favor interior
locations. The frontal boundary associated with the next storm
system will move into north Florida Saturday night into Sunday, with
increasing shower and storm chances for the northern half of the
forecast area. The boundary very slowly shifts southward through
Sunday and Sunday night with rain chances moving with it.

A surface low tries to develop off the northeast Florida coast early
next week, which will help keep rain chances in the forecast
through Monday. Some drier air then moves in for Tuesday and
more so for Wednesday, with rain chances confined more to
southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR expected for terminals through the cycle although a period of
MVFR/LCL IFR could develop overnight mainly between 09-14Z for
PGD/FMY/RSW as deeper moisture coupled with light winds may lead
to development of some lower cigs or patchy fog. Lower confidence
for now still so hinted at potential for that time frame this
cycle. Not expecting similar overnight potential for northern
terminals, and VFR expected to prevail during the day Friday area
wide. Winds mainly light and variable overnight, increasing to
SW 7-12 knots late morning through afternoon before diminishing
during the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
West to northwest winds today shift back to the southwest Friday as
a frontal boundary lifts northward across the area. Another storm
system will bring increasing rain chances for the waters over the
weekend. No headlines are expected, though winds and seas will be
higher in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No Red Flag concerns for the next several days as relative humidity
values will remain above normal. A frontal boundary over the region
will move north through Friday and then another storm system will
bring increasing rain chances for the area through this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  91  79  92 /  10  10   0  20
FMY  77  93  78  95 /  10  10   0  20
GIF  71  95  75  96 /   0  20   0  30
SRQ  76  91  77  93 /  10  10   0  20
BKV  66  93  71  94 /   0  20   0  30
SPG  79  89  81  90 /  10  10   0  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming