Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
990 FXXX10 KWNP 190031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 19-May 21 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 19-May 21 2024 May 19 May 20 May 21 00-03UT 2.00 3.67 4.00 03-06UT 2.33 3.33 3.67 06-09UT 2.67 2.33 3.00 09-12UT 4.00 2.33 2.67 12-15UT 4.00 4.67 (G1) 3.00 15-18UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 2.67 18-21UT 3.67 4.00 2.67 21-00UT 3.33 4.00 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 20 May due to weak CME arrival glancing blow potential. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 19-May 21 2024 May 19 May 20 May 21 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 19-May 21 2024 May 19 May 20 May 21 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely 19-21 May due to the number of active regions present on the visible solar disk and total flare probability contributions.