Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
794
FXXX10 KWNP 250031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 25-May 27 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 25-May 27 2024
May 25 May 26 May 27
00-03UT 3.33 1.00 2.00
03-06UT 3.33 2.00 2.00
06-09UT 3.00 2.67 2.00
09-12UT 3.00 4.00 2.00
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.00
15-18UT 1.67 2.00 2.00
18-21UT 1.67 3.00 2.33
21-00UT 1.67 2.00 2.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 25-May 27 2024
May 25 May 26 May 27
S1 or greater 10% 10% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 24 2024 0706 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 25-May 27 2024
May 25 May 26 May 27
R1-R2 60% 60% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 5%
Rationale: On 25-26 May, R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance of R3 (Strong) radio blackouts, due primarily to the flare
potential of Region 3679. The likelihood decreases to just a chance for
R1 (Minor) blackouts on 27 May as Region 3679 rotates beyond the western
limb.