Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
904
FXXX10 KWNP 221231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 22-May 24 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 22-May 24 2024
May 22 May 23 May 24
00-03UT 2.00 1.67 2.67
03-06UT 0.67 2.67 3.67
06-09UT 0.67 2.67 3.00
09-12UT 0.67 2.33 3.00
12-15UT 1.33 1.33 2.67
15-18UT 1.67 1.33 2.67
18-21UT 1.67 1.67 2.67
21-00UT 1.67 1.33 3.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 22-May 24 2024
May 22 May 23 May 24
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storm due to the slight risk of solar energetic particle events from
mainly Regions 3683, 3679, and 3685.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 22 2024 0404 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 22-May 24 2024
May 22 May 23 May 24
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with M-class flare
activity (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) probable and a slight chance of X-class
flares (R3; Strong) 22-24 May due primarily to the combined flare
probabilities of Regions 3683, 3679, and 3685.