Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
024
FXXX10 KWNP 241231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 24-May 26 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 24-May 26 2024
May 24 May 25 May 26
00-03UT 2.00 3.33 1.00
03-06UT 2.67 3.33 2.00
06-09UT 2.67 3.00 2.67
09-12UT 3.33 3.00 4.00
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 3.00
15-18UT 3.00 1.67 2.00
18-21UT 3.67 1.67 3.00
21-00UT 3.00 1.67 2.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 24-May 26 2024
May 24 May 25 May 26
S1 or greater 15% 10% 5%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storm due to the potential from Region 3679 over 24-25 May.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 23 2024 1326 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 24-May 26 2024
May 24 May 25 May 26
R1-R2 60% 60% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 5%
Rationale: R1/R2 (Minor/Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 24-25
May with a slight chance of (R3/Strong) radio blackouts, due primarily
to the flare potential of Region 3679.