Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
308
FXXX10 KWNP 161231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 16-May 18 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 16-May 18 2024
May 16 May 17 May 18
00-03UT 2.67 2.33 2.33
03-06UT 3.33 1.33 1.67
06-09UT 6.00 (G2) 1.67 2.00
09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 1.67 2.33
12-15UT 5.67 (G2) 2.33 2.33
15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 2.33
18-21UT 3.33 3.33 2.33
21-00UT 3.33 4.33 2.33
Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 16
May due to transient influences possibly combined with a positive
polarity CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 16-May 18 2024
May 16 May 17 May 18
S1 or greater 99% 15% 10%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are expected on 16 May due
to the flare potential from now departed Region 3664. Probabilities drop
to a slight chance on 17-18 May from the remaining active regions on the
Suns visible disk.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 15 2024 1438 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 16-May 18 2024
May 16 May 17 May 18
R1-R2 75% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 40% 10% 10%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are expected on 16 May due
to the flare potential from now departed Region 3664. Probabilities drop
to a chance on 17-18 May from the remaining active regions on the Suns
visible disk.