848
FXXX10 KWNP 260031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 26-May 28 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 26-May 28 2024

             May 26       May 27       May 28
00-03UT       1.00         2.00         2.00
03-06UT       2.00         2.00         3.00
06-09UT       2.67         2.00         2.00
09-12UT       4.00         2.00         2.00
12-15UT       3.00         2.00         2.00
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         2.00
18-21UT       3.00         2.33         2.00
21-00UT       2.00         3.00         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 26-May 28 2024

              May 26  May 27  May 28
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 26-May 28 2024

              May 26        May 27        May 28
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1 (Minor) blackouts exists on 26-28 May as
Region 3679 rotates beyond the western limb.