Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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449 FXUS65 KTFX 241741 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1141 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 .Aviation Section Updated... .SYNOPSIS... A few more days with scattered rain showers or a passing thunderstorm is possible through the weekend, before some drier air and warmer temperatures move in for a few days early next week. Below normal afternoon temperatures are expected through Sunday, but afternoon temperatures could be about 10 degrees above normal on Tuesday. However, it does turn cooler with more scattered showers developing by Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Given the showers across the North Central Plains, I elected to nudge POPs upward for all plains locations this afternoon as the added moisture should help to spur shower and thunderstorm development once the clouds break a bit more. Otherwise, no major changes were made to the existing forecast. Ludwig && .AVIATION... 24/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals excluding KWYS during this TAF period. The main concern through this period will be the chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms across most of north-central, central, and southwestern Montana. At this point in time the set up looks a bit hit-or-miss for thunderstorms across the region but confidence was high enough to make it worth including in the TAFs with either a vicinity tag or as a prob30 group for all sites except KWYS and KEKS where only light showers are expected. Otherwise, no other significant hazards are expected during this period. -thor Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024/ Today through Saturday...An unsettled weather pattern will continue to reside over the CWA for a few more days. Patchy morning fog will diminish by mid morning today. The flow aloft will be out of the northwest today, as upper level disturbances move through the northern portion of the CWA. 500 mb temperatures will not be as cold as they have been, thus we will not be quite as unstable this afternoon. Never the less, much of North Central MT will see scattered showers today. On Saturday, an open upper level trof will move through Southwest MT. This will result in a fairly widespread area of rain to develop over Southwest MT on Saturday morning, and then move northeast into Central MT by the afternoon. Right now, there is about a 50 percent chance for lower elevations to receive about 0.20 inches on Saturday, with around 0.40 inches possible in the mountains. Below normal afternoon temperatures will continue. Sunday through Tuesday...The upper level trof from Saturday will exit the CWA on Sunday. It will be slow to exit, but the overall chances for precipitation on Sunday will be lower, especially later in the day. Afternoon temperatures will still be a few degrees below normal for most areas. On Monday, an upper level ridge will try to build over Central MT for a few days. This will allow for drier conditions and warmer air to move into the CWA. Temperatures are likely to be a few degrees above normal on Monday, but could be close to 10 degrees above normal for Tuesday. Tuesday night into next Friday...The southwest flow aloft on Tuesday night will try to allow for a few thunderstorms to move into the western portions of the CWA. A better chance for storms will occur on Wednesday as the main upper level disturbance moves through. Right now the instability looks to low for widespread severe storms. It does turn cooler for later next week, as an upper level trof tries to redevelop over Central MT. Expect scattered showers to continue for Thu/Fri as well. Additionally, there is the potential for strong winds by next Friday along the Hi-line from Shelby to Harlem. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 63 39 64 41 / 50 30 70 40 CTB 60 37 62 40 / 50 40 40 20 HLN 65 43 63 41 / 20 10 80 50 BZN 60 35 61 36 / 10 10 80 70 WYS 53 30 51 31 / 10 10 80 70 DLN 61 36 59 34 / 10 20 80 40 HVR 62 40 68 44 / 60 30 50 50 LWT 58 37 61 38 / 50 20 80 70 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls