Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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284 FXUS65 KTFX 300231 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 831 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After a few showers and thunderstorms across Southwestern Montana this afternoon and evening, drier weather is expected to push into North Central and Southwestern Montana for the rest of the week. Expect highs to generally be seasonable across the area, with most lower elevations seeing highs gradually warm from near 60 on Thursday to the low to mid 70s for the weekend. && .UPDATE... No significant updates were needed this evening. Most showers have exited eastward, with any lingering showers moving out over the next few hours. There appears a low end chance for overnight showers, primarily along and adjacent to the I-90 corridor. The only change worth noting was to add a patchy fog mention in areas where confidence was at least moderate that skies would clear and winds would be light where rain fell today. -AM && .AVIATION... 30/00Z TAF Period Showers and thunderstorms will begin to wind down over the next few hours across Central/Southwest MT. Satellite has been showing occasional lightning strikes with showers, so I have kept the TEMPO thunderstorm group for a few more hours. However, chances for remaining thunderstorms remains low. As a result, there will be lower VFR/MVFR conditions with precipitation. As showers move out of the region, it will transition to VFR through the TAF period. Beginning Thursday morning, KHVR will have low chances for some isolated light showers passing through. Across Central MT and the Rocky Mountain Front, breezy west winds persists overnight. One thing to monitor is the potential for fog to develop in KWYS Thursday morning due to low winds, clearer skies and if they receive moisture from showers this evening. However, the probability was too low to include in the TAFs. Mountain obscuration will persist through the TAF period as well. -Wilson Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024/ Key Points: -A few thunderstorms are expected across Southwestern Montana this afternoon and early evening, some of which may bring gusty winds and a heavy downpour -Cooler and drier through the weekend Short Term (through Thursday)... A cold front continues to push through Southwestern Montana this afternoon, which has been the focal point for showers and even a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon that have brought some localized accumulating hail. Further north across the Plains, cooler and drier air have continued to work into the area, which has resulted in most areas seeing highs some 15-20 degrees cooler than they were yesterday. For the rest of the day today, expect showers and thunderstorms to continue across Southwestern Montana as they gradually shift off to the east, bringing briefly heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail as they move eastward, while the plains will see skies gradually clear. Thursday will be a fairly quiet weather day, with just a few rain showers across the Hi Line along with some breezy winds as the cool and dry air continues to push in from the north and west. We will have to watch for some rises on streams and creeks across Southwestern Montana as todays rainfall makes its way downstream, but widespread flooding is not expected at this time. Ludwig Friday through next Wednesday... A weak high pressure ridge is forecast to move into the area on Friday, bringing at least one day of drier conditions, lighter winds, and a return to near normal temperatures. Model clusters indicate that a more progressive westerly flow pattern will develop for the weekend into the middle of next week, but there is some disagreement on when the disturbances will move through the area. As a result, the NBM keeps the area slightly warmer than normal with a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day, especially over the mountain areas of Central and Southwest Montana. -Coulston && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 41 61 38 68 / 10 10 0 0 CTB 38 59 37 65 / 10 20 0 0 HLN 42 63 39 70 / 20 10 0 0 BZN 34 59 33 67 / 50 10 0 0 WYS 30 53 29 62 / 70 10 0 0 DLN 34 59 33 69 / 20 0 0 0 HVR 42 63 41 67 / 10 50 10 10 LWT 37 57 34 63 / 40 20 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls