214
FNUS75 KTFX 271525
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Two Calf RX...BLM
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
925 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on May 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge of high pressure shifts east across central
and eastern Montana Tuesday, providing dry conditions and likely
the warmest temperatures of the season so far Tuesday afternoon. A
cold front will advance east across the Rockies Tuesday night,
moving across central Montana Wednesday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front on Wednesday. Brief heavy
rain and strong wind gusts are a risk with storms Wednesday
afternoon. Current model guidance gives a 50-60% chance of
precipitation amounts exceeding 0.10" Wednesday with a 30-40%
chance of amounts in excess of 0.25" and 20% chance for amounts
of 0.50" or more. Southeast winds will persist through early
Wednesday morning, then shift to the west and northwest with the
passage of the cold front by Wednesday afternoon.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....80-85.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds to around 10 mph at ignition time,
                    increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15-20 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....53-58.
Max humidity........60-65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 15 mph.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Showers likely
                    with a chance of mainly afternoon thunderstorms.
CWR.................50 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....71-76.
Min humidity........36-41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph early, shifting
                    to the northwest around 15 mph by mid-day.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15-20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Hoenisch
Requested by...Jay Peterman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415143.0/TFX
.DELDT 05/27/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jpeterman@blm.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov