769
FNUS75 KTFX 201704
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Bull Sweats 9...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1104 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MDT on May 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Light precipitation will affect the burn area today and Tuesday.
Generally expect less than 0.05 inches today and again on Tuesday.
A steady rain is likely to develop on Wednesday afternoon or
evening, with the steady rain continuing into Thursday. Snow
levels will generally be above 5000 feet, but it could lower to
near 4500 feet in the early morning hours. There is the potential
for 1 inch to a high end 2 inch rainfall from Wed afternoon into
Thursday over the burn area.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning, then chance of
                    rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....61-66.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds up to 5 mph shifting to the
                    west around 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................2.
Min temperature.....38-43.
Max humidity........65-70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    in the morning, then rain showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................60 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....57-62.
Min humidity........41-46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming west 10 to 15 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Brusda
Requested by...Jake FitzGerald
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414731.0/TFX
.DELDT 05/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jake.fitzgerald@usda.gov