Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
485 FXUS63 KTOP 031111 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 611 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chances for additional storms today, generally south of Interstate 70. A few stronger storms capable of hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. - Highest chances for precip area wide are Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front sweeps through the region. A few may be severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Remnants of the decaying MCS and residual outflow boundary is progressing southeastward through northeast Kansas at the current hour. As the MCS entered a lesser favorable environment with the weakening effective bulk shear in northeast KS, the cluster became outflow dominant and dissipated. A secondary MCS has developed over southwest Kansas, generally moving east southeast. It appears to be favoring the elevated instability gradient, progged to track across southern KS this morning, possibly clipping southern Lyon, Coffey, and Anderson counties after sunrise albeit more likely to stay south. There`s indication of a possible MCV that forms from this cluster with additional development expected late afternoon into the evening hours, although models remain varied on the timing and coverage of convection by 00Z tonight. The latest NAM is the most robust with widespread convection developing this evening on the nose of the LLJ, whereas most CAMs are more scattered in nature and confined to OK. Plan is to maintain low chance pops for isolated storms in the afternoon, generally south of I-70. With a strong capping layer in place, convection would be elevated with a risk for hail and gusty winds mainly. Tuesday afternoon and evening is still looking promising for convection to form along an approaching cold front from the northwest. As sfc dewpoints rise to near 70 degrees, buoyancy amplifies with sfc cape values from 3000-4000 J/KG by 21Z. Upper level support from the shortwave trough axis in NE lends towards higher pops over far northeast Kansas while more isolated storms are anticipated further south. Given decent wind profiles as well, any storms that develop will have the risk for very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Isolated cells could pose a low tornado risk, but that should quickly subside as convection congeals into a line and races southeast through the evening hours. Convection exits by Wednesday morning, returning dry conditons to the area through Friday as upper ridge amplifies over the Inter- Mountain West. Overnight MCS clusters Friday evening and Saturday evening could potentially clip western portions of the area. Spread amongst the long term ensemble guidance however is high on QPF with low confidence for slight chances of thunderstorms at best. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR prevails at terminals with broken mid clouds gradually scattering out by mid afternoon. Overall short term guidance has the clusters of TSRA (southeast and central KS) passing west and south of the terminals, therefore confidence is not high enough to add the mention. If storms pass closer to the terminals, I would expect lower stratus in the 035-050 range after 14Z into the afternoon period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Prieto