506
FXUS63 KTOP 051034
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
534 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and hot conditions today, followed by a cooler airmass
arriving on Thursday.

- Additional storm chances Friday and Saturday - locally heavy
  rainfall possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The cold front and associated MCS continues to trek southeast from
central MO to southeast OK this morning. Initial gusty northerly
winds over northeast Kansas have weakened around 5 mph and should
remain generally light today as sfc ridge axis slides southward
during the afternoon. Scattered mid clouds behind the boundary
should clear to the southeast by mid-morning, paving the way to a
very warm and humid afternoon. Despite the drier air moving in
with dewpoints falling into the low 50s by late afternoon, NBM
spread along with bias corrected guidance have been trending
warmer towards highs close to 90 degrees, likely low 90s over
north central areas. A secondary boundary accompanied by a much
cooler airmass arrives this evening. CAMs depict isolated storms
forming over eastern NE, quickly weakening before entering far
northeast Kansas. Added 10 percent pops in this area for now
given the high cloud bases and lack of convergence along the
boundary.

North winds pickup Thursday afternoon from 10 to 20 mph as cold air
advection spreads south, dropping highs about 10 degrees in the
lower 80s. Upper air pattern changes Friday as an embedded shortwave
trough rounds the edge of the ridge before reaching the central
plains Friday evening. Latest guidance remains generous with
widespread QPF as an MCS develops and tracks southeast through
Saturday morning, followed by an additional cold front. Forecast
soundings show abundant moisture throughout the column as PWAT
values peak above 2 inches. While MUCAPE values are not
particularly high (1000 J/KG or less), strong bulk shear would
be enough for possible damaging wind gusts in addition to
locally heavy rainfall. Another complex may develop once again
late Saturday evening, but currently focus along the h85 front
in southern KS. Highs in the lower 80s follow from Sunday into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR at terminals as light winds back to the southwest,
approaching 10 kts aft 20Z. Scattered mid clouds pass with the
weak fropa aft 02Z, as winds veer to the northwest at 5 to 8
kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto