Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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840 FXUS63 KTOP 040816 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 316 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms are possible along and ahead of a passing cold front this afternoon and evening today. - Dry and seasonably warm weather returns Wednesday through Friday. - Northwest flow aloft brings in multiple chances for overnight storms Friday and Saturday evenings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Water vapor imagery this morning depicts a shortwave trough axis rotating over northeast Kansas with an additional trough axis stretching across the western high plains. A weak cluster of storms has formed over southwest NE that may impact north central KS later this morning, if it can hold together. Also cannot rule out light showers or an isolated storm developing across far eastern Kansas through sunrise while the upper trough lifts in MO. Focus turns towards the cold front quickly progressing through Nebraska during the morning and afternoon, along with severe storms developing in north central Kansas as early as 18Z and as late as 22Z depending on which model solution you view. There is also indication that the decaying thunderstorms entering northwest KS may persist as an additional area of forcing before entering central KS by midday. This would develop a few severe storms along of south of I-70, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. If this occurs and exits by late afternoon, coverage of severe storms along the front may be confided to north of Interstate 70 and far east KS in the late afternoon to early evening. Another caveat that could lesser the severe storm coverage is the timing of the front and degree of sfc convergence along the boundary. While SFC CAPE rises to near 3000 J/KG with minimal inhibition in the late afternoon, mid level lapse rates are not particularly strong (6-7C/Km). Any storm that develops is still capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Convection will likely begin to congeal into a line and gradually weaken as it moves through far eastern Kansas and western MO from 00Z-06z. High pressure settles into the region Wednesday, bringing back sunny skies and lower dewpoints in the 50s. Amplified ridging to the west sets up northwest flow through the central region, progged to bring embedded vort maxes Friday and Saturday evenings. Ensembles focus the higher QPF (> 0.10 inches) Friday evening towards south central Kansas with perhaps some higher probabilities in northeast Kansas on Saturday evening. Winds remain light throughout the week while highs are in lower 80s with overnight lows around 60 degrees. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR at sites with light southerly winds below 10 mph overnight. Low stratus observed in OK is expected to lift northward overnight, most likely impacting KTOP/KFOE on the low end VFR side aft 12Z. Stratus scatters out mid afternoon as wind speeds approach 10 to 12 kts aft 18Z. Sct TSRA may form along a front in the 23Z-01Z time frame at KTOP/KFOE. Models are struggling with the timing of coverage, lesser being towards KMHK so left out the mention for now. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Prieto