Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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525 FXUS63 KTOP 270844 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 344 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Memorial Day (Today) will be dry and Sunny. Highs will reach the lower 80s. - Expect the pleasant weather to last through midweek. - Thunderstorm chances will be possible again Thursday through next Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Early this morning an upper level trough was located across the central and southern MS River valley. Both the the southern and northern stream H5 jets phased in the base of the MS River Valley upper trough. An upper trough was digging southeast across the northern plains A surface low was located across western WI with a cold front extending south across eastern IL, then southwest into northern TX. A broad surface ridge extended across the northern and central high Plains. Memorial Day (Today) through Wednesday night: The northern stream H5 trough will phase with the MS River valley H5 trough across the eastern US, keeping eastern KS under northwesterly H5 flow. The northern Plains H5 trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes States and phase with the mid MS River Valley H5 trough across the OH River Valley. Eastern KS will see sunny skies and pleasant temperatures Today (Memorial day), with afternoon highs reaching the lower 80s. Clouds wil increase on Tuesday as an H5 perturbation embedded with the southern stream jet lifts northeast across central TX. Ahead of this perturbation, a lee surface trough will deepen across eastern CO, southward across the southern high Plains. Richer gulf moisture will be advected northwest across west TX into western KS. Most CAMs show the isentropic lift/WAA associated with the richer moisture transport remaining west of the CWA, so I don`t expect any rainfall across our southwest counties. Highs on Tuesday will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. The southern H5 perturbation will shift east out of TX across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough will move onshore across the Pacific northwest and shift east into the Great Basin. A downstream H5 ridge in the northern jet will amplify across the central and northern high Plains. An upper trough from central Canada will dig southeast into the Great Lakes and mid Atlantic States. An area of high pressure across the upper Midwest will expand southwestward Wednesday and advect drier air parcels eastward into eastern KS. Highs on Wednesday will continue to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with an east-southeast surface wind. Thursday through Monday: The northern stream H5 trough will slowly shift east into the the northern and central Plains into Saturday. The southern and norther stream H5 jets will phase a bit across the KS and OK. Perturbations moving east across the Plains combined with richer moisture transport northward will provide chances for showers and thunderstorms, 30 to 60 percent, depending on the timing of the more amplified H5 perturbations. So there remains uncertainly in when and where the best rain chances will occur through the period. I don`t expect a washout but there may be some scattered showers and storms each afternoon and evening. Highs may cool slightly into the end of the week with more cloud cover and rain chances. Friday and Saturday high temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s. Sunday into Monday a southern stream H5 ridge will amplify a bit across the southern Plains into KS. Highs will then warm back into the mid 80s by next Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Northwest winds will remain under 10 KTS. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Gargan