Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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064 FXUS63 KTOP 262320 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 620 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms are possible through early evening. The stronger storms may produce damaging wind gusts and small hail. - Memorial Day will be dry and Sunny. Highs will reach the lower 80s. - Thunderstorm chances will be possible again Wednesday night through next Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A mid level trough axis was moving across central Kansas this afternoon at 19Z. DPVA to the east was producing some elevated showers and a an isolated storm as lapse rates increase with cold air aloft. The main frontal boundary was located across far east central and southeast Kansas where a few storms were developing as of 19Z. For the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours expect isolated storms or showers to continue with low chances (~20%) in any given location. Any storms will dissipate during the evening with the loss of heating and the passing of the mid level trough axis. Another upstream minor wave may bring a small chance of a shower into north central and central Kansas for a few hours later this evening. Lows tonight will cool into the mid to upper 50s. A pleasant Memorial Day and Tuesday is expected with highs in the lower 80s with mostly clear skies and light winds. Later on Tuesday upslope flow into the Rockies and adjacent high Plains will bring scattered storms to western into southwest Kansas. The propagation will mainly be within the moisture and instability axis across southwest and western sections of the state leaving the CWA dry. A mid level ridge builds into the Plains ahead of a trough over the western states. Again keeping more of the moisture and instability confined to the western high Plains. For Thursday into the weekend a more zonal flow sets up across the central Plains while the main westerlies with the jet remain across the northern plains. There will be chances for showers and storms off and on through next weekend. Timing of perturbations out into the central Plains as well as model differences keeps confidence low (around 30 to 40 percent) for precipitation chances. Temperatures remain in the 80s for highs with lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR at terminals with light westerly winds near or below 10 kts through forecast period. Shower or TSRA coverage on models is very isolated so removed mention in the TAF for the early evening. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53 AVIATION...Prieto