Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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081 FXUS63 KTOP 252306 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 606 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The potential for a higher-end severe weather event remains this evening into early Sunday. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible. - Thunderstorms chances continue through Sunday before drier and quieter conditions are expected Memorial Day through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 A mid level trough was located over the Rockies this afternoon with profilers from VWP showing a perturbation ejecting out of northeast Colorado. A more defined PV anomaly was located over Colorado into New Mexico at 19Z, which will be the main driver for convection later today and tonight. Starting to see come cumulus building in parts of western Kansas at 19Z. Mass response in relation to the approaching shortwave trough continues to bring dew points northward, but as of 19Z 60+F dewpoints remained confined to far southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Expect the moisture to continue to increase across northeast Kansas this evening and tonight. CAMS continue to show development across parts of western and central Kansas late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Expect scattered supercells moving into north central Kansas after 7 PM to 8 PM. These storms will move northeast and be capable of all hazards, but primarily large hail and damaging winds. Storms that develop in southwest and south central Kansas look to take on an more easterly movement where again very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. This places the southern portions of the cwa, mainly across east central Kansas where these storms will track across. Storms will also have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall, especially later this evening into the overnight hours. Moisture transport vectors will be southerly this evening before veering to the southwest after midnight. There is the potential for some training of storms which may lead to locally heavy rainfall and rainfall rates approaching two inches per hour. Dry antecedent conditions will preclude a flood watch at this time, but the potential for flash flooding will exist(30%) tonight in localized areas. On the heels of the first wave which moves out into Missouri Sunday morning a trailing wave may generate showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours across the area. Steepening lapse rates with cooling aloft in the afternoon and remnant moisture may be enough for some large hail and isolated strong winds with the stronger storms. Dry weather is expected for Memorial Day and Tuesday before precipitation chances return to the region from Wednesday into next weekend as a series f mid level troughs move through the Plains. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR at terminals with main focus on several rounds of TSRA to move in from the west in the 02-04Z time frame. Behind the initial line, more storms will develop along an east-west boundary near the terminals, anticipating several rounds of TSRA before exiting southeast aft 09Z. IFR was mentioned with the heaviest convection, however would not be surprised if cigs get to LIFR. Lingering low end MVFR stratus persists into the afternoon, possibly lifting to VFR towards the end of the forecast period. Multiple pop up showers initially in the morning could form into isolated TSRA by mid afternoon. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53 AVIATION...Prieto