Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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336 FXUS63 KTOP 300839 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 339 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and thunderstorms move into the area today and linger into Friday. Some storms could be strong to severe this afternoon. - A summer-like weather pattern begins to set up this weekend and next week with warm temperatures and occasional thunderstorm chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Early this morning, mid-level water vapor imagery shows a weakening complex of storms across the high plains of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Shortwave energy has helped to maintain some strong updrafts, but as they continue to move east this morning, these will continue to weaken as they move into a less favorable environment. Over the past several hours, satellite and radar observations show a complex of thunderstorms in far west-central Kansas that has maintained cool cloud tops and the appearance of an MCV structure. If this MCV structure continues to deepen, it will likely be the center of convection this afternoon and overnight across eastern Kansas. By this afternoon, the shortwave trough will move east across Kansas and increase rain and storm chances area-wide (60-80%). Ahead of the advancing shortwave, low-level moisture advection will take place, increasing PWATs to 1.25-1.75 in. across northeastern Kansas. Diurnal heating and the surge of moisture will help MUCAPE values to climb near 2000 J/kg as 0-6 km shear builds into the 15-30 knot range. Better shear will reside further to our southwest, but cannot rule out a strong to severe storm during the afternoon capable of producing large hail (around 1 inch) and gusty winds, possibly upwards of 60 mph. Heavy rainfall will also be a hazard given the increasing moisture throughout the day. Areas in northeast Kansas will generally see 1-1.5 inches or rainfall, but isolated areas could see up to 2-3 inches before rain and storms begin to move east by Friday afternoon. Current thinking is that a MCV developing within convection in western Kansas this morning will be focal point for lift and storms this afternoon as it slides across the southwest portion of the CWA (central Kansas). Have maintained higher-end PoPs into Friday morning and afternoon across eastern Kansas with the potential MCV and shortwave energy providing enough lift for scattered to widespread showers and storms. Not expecting any severe weather Friday afternoon given very weak flow aloft, but cannot rule out a strong storm or two given some modest instability. By Saturday, shortwave energy moves east of the area ushering in a brief dry period. Split flow sets up across the CONUS with the forecast area in between the two areas of upper-scale lift. Guidance does have varying confidence in weak waves passing over the central Plains within the zonal flow that could impact each day`s weather. Due to the low confidence forecast, did not deviate much from NBM`s precipitation chances over the extended forecast. Long-range height anomaly plots have begun to hint at a large region of high height anomalies over the western and central US next week. If this pattern can play out, our first taste of summer could be in store with warmer temperatures building into the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions will be expected for much of the TAF period at all terminals. Kept out mention of MVFR CIGs at this TAF over this morning as models still remain inconsistent with development of stratus deck. Will continue to monitor if trends change. Winds will increase out of the southeast just after sunrise with scattered thunderstorms expected across the area in the afternoon. Added mention of VCTS to account for approximate timing of convection around terminals. Kept mention of near- MVFR ceilings as rain and storms move in, but better confidence in lower CIGs come later Thursday evening and Friday morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Griesemer