Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
382 FXUS63 KTOP 300521 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1221 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Any isolated thunderstorms this afternoon are forecast to dissipate by early evening. - There is a 50 to 70 percent chance of showers and storms Thursday and into Friday morning, a few of which could be strong. - The weather is forecast to begin feeling a little more like summer this weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 19Z water vapor imagery showed a shortwave ridge over the central plains with some convection developing off the higher terrain of CO. Further upstream was an upper trough from British Columbia into the Great Basin. Surface obs showed high pressure over the middle MO river valley weakening with southerly return flow increasing through the southern plains and central high plains. Late this afternoon, an isolated thunderstorms may develop within an instability axis associated with the low level moisture return. This is seen with the CU field that has formed from southeast KS through central KS. The CAMs have shown isolated updrafts developing fairly consistently but having confidence in a specific location where the storm may be is low. Some modest instability around 1500 J/kg may allow for a stronger updraft, but effective shear is expected to remain marginal. So will need to keep an eye on this, but think chances for severe convection remain limited. Much of this activity should be diurnally driven and chances for precip are forecast to diminish shortly after 6 or 7 pm. For Thursday and Friday, the forecast appears to be a little more nuanced and driven more by mesoscale features. The main question is whether there will be forcing for vertical motion impacting the area Thursday night. One idea has a shortwave trough moving across northeast KS with widespread QPF over the area. The second idea is for an MCV to develop across southwestern KS Thursday afternoon and dive to the south and east of the forecast area with little QPF over the forecast area. Overall think there will be showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night, but they may be a little more hit or miss. Have POPs increasing from west to east through the day for any convection that forms along the high plains tonight and propagates east. For Thursday night, have limited POPs to 70 percent given the uncertainty in the evolution of the mesoscale environment. As for the potential for severe weather, there could be some moderate instability develop by the afternoon if morning precipition dissipates and the boundary layer is allowed to warm. Flow is generally weak and models generally show 0-6km bulk shear between 20 and 40 knots. So there is some chance for a few intense updrafts in the afternoon and evening. But a lot of ingredients will need to line up for an organized severe weather risk. Have held onto some higher POPs into Friday morning as models show some potential for either a shortwave or MCV to remain in the area of eastern KS through the morning. Increased cloud cover is expected to keep highs generally in the middle 70s for Thursday and Friday. For Saturday through Tuesday, models show split flow persisting with the forecast area generally between the northern and southern streams. There is some potential for relatively weak perturbations within the pattern to affect our weather any given day. Given the lower predictability of the pattern, have kept the NBM forecast with a broad brush of chance POPs. Operational models show warmer air advecting north with time. So highs trend warmer through the weekend and into next week feeling a little more like summer. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions will be expected for much of the TAF period at all terminals. Kept out mention of MVFR CIGs at this TAF over this morning as models still remain inconsistent with development of stratus deck. Will continue to monitor if trends change. Winds will increase out of the southeast just after sunrise with scattered thunderstorms expected across the area in the afternoon. Added mention of VCTS to account for approximate timing of convection around terminals. Kept mention of near- MVFR ceilings as rain and storms move in, but better confidence in lower CIGs come later Thursday evening and Friday morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Griesemer