204
FXUS64 KTSA 210527
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Current forecast on track this evening with no significant
shortly term changes anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Warm, humid, but otherwise quiet weather is in store for the
remainder of today and tonight. There will be plenty of potential
instability, but a capping inversion should keep convection from
initiating. High temperatures will peak this afternoon in the 80s to
low 90s, decreasing to the upper 60s to low 70s overnight. A breezy
southerly wind will be present for much of the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

A shortwave trough will pass to the north of the area on Tuesday
with good height falls, implying broad lift over the area.
Additionally, a strong upper level jet will be positioned to allow
for good mid to upper level divergence across the area. Lower down,
decent convergence along a surface boundary will further aid in
promoting lift. Strong wind shear will be present, focusing in the
mid levels. These factors will come into play with a very warm
and unstable atmosphere, with 3000-4000 J of MLCAPE and PWAT
values approaching 1.5". These values are climatologically unusual
with the EPS EFI for CAPE-Shear showing values of 0.7 to 0.8.
Most of the moisture will be concentrated in the lower levels,
with the specific humidity in the surface to 850 hPa layer near
the 99th percentile for this time of year.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front during
the late afternoon or evening. However, CAMs are uncertain with
respect to where and when these storms will be able to get going,
which mostly stems back to differences in how quickly the capping
inversion is broken. Wherever storms do develop, they will certainly
have the potential to become severe. With that in mind, storms
will likely initiate in northeast OK in the late afternoon or
early evening, initially as discrete or semi-discrete cells.
Storms will then congeal and move into east-central OK and
northwest AR in the late evening and overnight hours. Discrete
storms will have the potential for all severe hazards, including
hail, wind, tornadoes, and heavy rain. As storms grow upscale, the
threat for hail will diminish and wind will increase. There is
some question of convective coverage, with most models not showing
storms everywhere. Accordingly, kept Pops mostly in the 50-70%
range for northeast OK and northwest AR, with somewhat lower Pops
to the south.

The cold front driving Tuesday`s storms will sag south, settling
across southeast OK or perhaps northern Texas on Wednesday.
Temperatures will be much cooler north of this boundary, with
highs in the low to mid 70s for many locations. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue to focus along the boundary, but
guidance shows the potential for elevated storms to develop well
to the north, even into northeast OK and northwest AR. Model
soundings show MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/Kg, so severe hail
would be possible with any storms. Closer to the boundary across
southeast OK, locally heavy rainfall will promote a flash flood
potential for some areas.

The cold front lifts back north on Thursday, now as a warm front,
with climatologically unusual instability, wind shear, and low
level moisture. Model guidance again produces widespread showers
and thunderstorms, with the strongest signal across southeast OK
into west-central AR. A few severe storms will remain possible
considering the strong instability and sufficient flow for
supercell development, but at this lead time it`s difficult to pin
down details.

The same general pattern will persist through Sunday with additional
storm chances and daily severe weather probabilities. The exact
details will become more clear as we get closer. Southwest USA
ridging may finally build in early next week leading to a warming
trend, though if typical MCS activity develops, temperatures would
be slower to warm than models are currently indicating.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail most of the period, with exception of
lower ceilings surging north out of Texas early this morning,
which will likely bring a period of MVFR conditions to KMLC. Gusty
south winds will increase this morning in advance of a cold
front, which will move into part of northeast OK late this
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are
probable along the front by 00z, but uncertainty remains high
with coverage. For the time being, will maintain a PROB30 at all
NE OK and NW AR sites from 00-06z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  74  62  79 /  60  60  50  60
FSM   72  82  67  81 /  50  80  80  70
MLC   71  81  64  80 /  40  80  80  70
BVO   59  73  56  79 /  60  50  40  50
FYV   66  79  61  79 /  70  80  80  70
BYV   65  77  62  78 /  60  80  80  70
MKO   67  77  63  77 /  60  80  70  70
MIO   60  72  59  78 /  80  70  50  50
F10   67  76  62  78 /  50  70  70  70
HHW   74  84  67  80 /  20  70  70  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14