Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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350 FXUS64 KTSA 170838 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 338 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Compact shortwave located over northwest TX early this morning will continue moving east-northeast today. At present, some dense fog has developed across east central and southeast OK, however increasing cloud cover and lift associated with the approaching wave should be sufficient to prevent formation of widespread dense fog. Also, should begin to see isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms develop through the morning. Coverage will increase though the afternoon and despite weak deep layer flow, there should be pockets of moderate instability with a few strong clusters of slow moving storms. With seasonably high PWAT values, localized amounts of 1-2 inches of rainfall are definitely possible, and given saturated soil conditions there is some threat of isolated flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Some lingering showers and storms persist into the evening, mainly across southeast OK and western AR as the upper wave departs. Some amount of fog is likely again tonight, and potential for locally dense fog will be there. Otherwise the weekend will be uneventful weather-wise as shortwave ridging establishes over the region for a couple of days. Temperatures will rise above normal with rather humid conditions, however the NBM numbers for high temps may be a bit high given the saturated soil conditions. Either way, heat index values in the lower or even mid 90s are possible both days. The remainder of the extended forecast becomes a bit more active as stronger flow aloft sets up over much of the country, with some degree of longwave troughing in the west. A passing shortwave will result in a low threat of showers and storms late Sunday nigh into Monday across far northeast OK, though instability looks limited at this time. A more substantial wave will push a cold front into the area, sometime Tuesday most likely, and with the stronger deep layer flow present, the potential for severe weather will increase during that time. Confidence beyond that remains low regarding any details, but some degree of thunderstorm chances will be maintained into later next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Areas of fog may result in reduced visibilities and ceilings through mid morning Friday, otherwise mainly VFR conditions will prevail. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon, with the northwest Arkansas sites most likely to be impacted. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 80 60 86 64 / 30 10 0 0 FSM 79 62 85 64 / 70 20 10 0 MLC 79 60 85 64 / 50 20 0 0 BVO 81 57 86 60 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 77 58 82 60 / 60 20 10 0 BYV 76 58 83 60 / 70 20 10 0 MKO 77 60 84 62 / 50 20 10 0 MIO 79 59 85 61 / 40 10 10 0 F10 77 59 84 63 / 40 20 0 0 HHW 79 62 86 64 / 50 20 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...05