Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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011 FXUS64 KTSA 221553 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1053 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1051 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Ongoing storms are aligned along and north of a cold front which is make slow but steady progress southward through SE OK and west central AR. This trend will continue through the day with the focus for strongest storms gradually shifting southward with time. The severe threat will decrease from north to south across the forecast area and likely be south of the Red River by late afternoon. Updated forecast has adjust for precip trends in the near term and incorporated observed trends. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Shower and storm chances will be greatest tonight across southeast Oklahoma, but if convection today forces the surface boundary too far south, coverage and intensity of storms tonight may end up being less than forecast. The frontal boundary starts to return north and wash out Thursday as an upper wave approaches from the west. This will result in another round of showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening, with southern and eastern areas once again favored for greatest storm coverage and heaviest rain amounts. A relative lull in convection is expected Friday into Saturday afternoon before storm chances ramp up again late Saturday and Saturday night as another upper wave moves across the area. A cold front will follow the passage of this system, with drier weather returning Sunday into next week as the upper level pattern changes to a more northwest flow. There is still some uncertainty as to whether we will be completely dry early next week, so just rode with the NBM pops for now which keeps most of the area dry. Temperatures through this period look to be near the seasonal averages for late May. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop generally north of I-40 in eastern OK. Storms are expected to continue gradually expanding south and east through the morning, with areas of MVFr conditions and locally IFR within strong cells. Should see a break early this afternoon before additional strong storms develop from NW AR into SE OK mid to late afternoon. Overall MVFR conditions are expected to be more widespread by this evening with additional rounds of showers and storms possible, mainly SE of I-44. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 77 63 82 68 / 20 30 50 40 FSM 80 66 83 69 / 90 50 50 60 MLC 78 65 82 68 / 80 70 60 50 BVO 77 59 82 65 / 20 10 40 40 FYV 76 62 80 64 / 80 50 50 60 BYV 75 62 80 65 / 70 50 50 60 MKO 75 63 81 66 / 80 50 50 50 MIO 75 61 81 65 / 40 20 40 50 F10 74 63 81 67 / 70 40 60 50 HHW 82 66 82 68 / 80 80 60 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for OKZ049-053-072>076. AR...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...14