Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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528 FXUS64 KTSA 300759 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 259 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Clusters of showers/thunderstorms continue this morning well west of the area across the high Plains. Latest CAMS have been somewhat inconsistent with storm evolution today. At least scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to move and/or develop across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon/evening. Deep layer shear is expected to remain relatively light (20kts or less), but with modest afternoon heating a few of these storms could be marginally severe across eastern Oklahoma with damaging winds/hail. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Friday as strong mid level wave moves across the region. Locally heavy rainfall will be likely in the stronger storms. Depending on how much surface based instability can develop, at least a limited threat for severe storms will be possible south of I-40. The heavier precipitation will begin to shift east of northwest Arkansas Friday evening. With stronger zonal flow aloft both GFS/ECMWF suggest additional rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Wednesday with the potential for additional MCS/MCV activity. Overall QPF amounts will likely remain light in most areas, however there could be some isolated pockets of heavier rainfall. High temperatures are forecast to be near or slightly above normal for the early to middle part of next week, but again this will be contingent on how much precipitation lingers each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the night. A complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely move into parts of eastern Oklahoma by mid morning and could impact those terminals with MVFR/IFR conditions during any storms. Uncertainty exists in how the complex will evolve and as such probabilities of impacting any one terminal are still on the low side (~30%). Shower/storm chances will shift eastward into the afternoon and evening, with impact to AR sites possible after 18Z. Otherwise, light winds and VFR cigs will be the prevailing conditions. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 83 66 77 63 / 50 70 90 40 FSM 85 67 78 67 / 40 50 80 60 MLC 83 66 79 64 / 50 70 90 40 BVO 82 62 76 60 / 40 80 80 30 FYV 83 63 75 62 / 30 50 80 60 BYV 83 63 73 63 / 20 40 80 70 MKO 81 65 75 63 / 40 70 90 50 MIO 83 64 73 62 / 30 70 80 50 F10 81 64 76 63 / 50 70 90 40 HHW 79 65 78 66 / 50 60 90 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12