Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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560 FXUS64 KTSA 260538 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1238 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 920 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Update mainly is for adding tornado watch 311 which will include most of NE OK and far NW AR. Bulk of storm coverage is expected to stay north of I 40 tonight, though isolated to widely scattered storms that develop across SE OK and WC AR will still have severe potential. Made some adjustments to PoPs through 06 based on expected coverage, and just a few minor tweaks to PoPs in the 06-12z time frame. Overnight temperatures look reasonable at this time. Updated ZFP/AFM/PFM already sent && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Thunderstorms are expected to have waned and / or focused more east of the local region by early Sunday. However, the cold front associated with the passing wave will not clear western AR and SE OK until late afternoon and conditions will become increasingly unstable ahead of the boundary. Veered low level winds will limit frontal convergence and overall storm coverage is likely to be low, however at least isolated storms are possible along the boundary by mid to late afternoon before the front clears the forecast area to the east and south. Otherwise, dry weather and warm weather will prevail west of the front. Sfc high pressure builds across the region Monday providing a pleasant day area wide. The pattern transitions toward more northwesterly flow through the southern Plains by Tuesday with daily thunderstorm complexes likely to develop and track in or near the forecast area from Tuesday night through Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and at least a limited risk of severe weather would accompany these events. By late week into next weekend the pattern reverts to more southwesterly flow aloft and likely remains unsettled with daily thunderstorm chances continuing. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Supercell continues to track east early this morning across far northeast Oklahoma and will likely impact KXNA/KROG in the 06-07Z time range. LIFR conditions will be likely with the potential for severe gusts/large hail. Supercell located along the OK/KS state line should remain north of KBVO. Additional storms are developing across portions of eastern Oklahoma in strong low level jet and a few of these storms could also briefly impact NW AR TAF sites overnight. Otherwise, strong and gusty southwest winds will develop during the day Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 62 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 91 66 89 63 / 20 20 0 10 MLC 91 64 89 62 / 0 10 0 10 BVO 88 58 86 58 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 87 61 85 59 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 88 61 84 59 / 30 10 0 0 MKO 90 62 85 60 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 86 59 83 59 / 10 10 0 0 F10 91 61 86 60 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 89 65 89 63 / 10 10 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...12