Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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653 FXUS64 KTSA 291928 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 228 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Remnant MVC across the area this afternoon has resulted in a few showers and thunderstorms across parts of NE OK, with spotty shower activity noted elsewhere. Expect this to diminish this evening which should leave most of the area dry until late tonight, when PoPs will start to increase for parts of NE/SE OK as another storm complex approaches from the W-NW. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 PoPs to expand Thursday, with the highest PoPs across SE OK as the storm complex tracks towards the the Red River from the morning into the afternoon hours. Expect an overall weakening trend from late afternoon into the evening, but will keep a broadbrush of chance PoPs in between 00-06z. Will increase rain/storm chances after 06z Friday as another complex is expected to develop to the northwest in association with a stronger upper wave. This complex will track towards the forecast area late Thursday night into Friday. Once this wave passes to the east Friday night, much of Saturday should remain dry. A subtle wave passing through Sunday may result in isolated to widely scattered activity, so will carry low end PoPs at this time for the end of the weekend. Overall, the active pattern continues into next week, though some medium range solutions suggest weak, but somewhat `dirty` ridging possibly setting up over the area which may result in lower end coverage of rain and storms. However, any modest mid level height rises will be suppressed by a stronger wave that looks to move through Tuesday night/early Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A few light showers passing through eastern OK at present, and still expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon, with greatest coverage likely focused across western AR. Afternoon convection will trend downward through the evening. Any site that receives significant rainfall later today could see fog overnight, but confidence remains too low. Some indications that a more organized cluster for storms may move into eastern OK early Thursday morning. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail outside of direct influence from thunderstorms and fog as mentioned above. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 64 81 65 77 / 20 50 70 80 FSM 65 83 67 80 / 20 50 40 80 MLC 65 81 65 78 / 20 60 60 90 BVO 60 81 62 76 / 10 50 80 80 FYV 60 82 65 76 / 20 50 50 80 BYV 60 81 62 75 / 20 50 40 70 MKO 63 79 65 75 / 20 50 60 90 MIO 60 81 64 74 / 20 50 60 80 F10 63 78 65 76 / 20 50 70 90 HHW 65 76 65 76 / 30 60 50 90 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...14