189
FXUS65 KTWC 222107
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
207 PM MST Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry conditions with breezy afternoons at times
this week. Temperatures will remain near or slightly above average
for late May. A ridge of high pressure should bring hotter
temperatures early next week with Tucson making another run at 100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The overall synoptic pattern won`t change very much
for Arizona for the remainder of the work week. A longwave trough
will be in place over the West with shortwave troughs rotating
through well to the north and high pressure over Mexico. Arizona
will be sandwiched between these two features leading to breezy
winds each afternoon especially east of Tucson. Saturday one of
the shortwaves will dip a little further south leading to
stronger winds area wide especially along the AZ/NM border and
southeast Cochise County. These areas could see brief and
localized critical fire weather conditions. Temps will also
decrease to below normal Saturday but then quickly rebound. Early
next week ensembles show ridging building in which could lead to
another run at 100 degrees for Tucson. The 22/13Z NBM gives a 17
percent chance for the airport to reach 100 on Monday and 59
percent chance on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
SKC. WLY SFC winds 12-18 kts this afternoon with gusts up to 25
kts. Then light and variable overnight and early morning. Winds
increase again tomorrow afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with breezy afternoons at times
into this coming weekend, especially Saturday. Minimum RH values
bottoming out in the single digits in valleys with poor to fair
overnight recoveries. Some areas in southeast Cochise County and
along the AZ/NM border could see localized and brief critical fire
weather conditions. Temperatures near typical values for late
May, with hotter afternoons possible early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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