Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
430 FXUS65 KTWC 202030 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 130 PM MST Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A weak trough continues to bring several degrees of cooling along with gusty afternoon winds this week. A slight chance of dry thunderstorms today but otherwise, dry conditions prevail through the end of the week and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...High level cloud cover today may develop into isolated dry thunderstorms along the White Mountains and north of our area this afternoon. The presence of a tight pressure gradient as the low pressure passes to our north will bring strong gusty winds this afternoon, resulting in the Red Flag Warning that is currently in effect until 8pm MST. As the week progresses, an upper-level trough will prevail, helping to keep our temperatures near our climatological normal. This will result in dry conditions and most locations being in the low-to-mid 90s. As we move into next week, a ridge moves into place, with early next week (Tuesday) having a 50% chance of hitting the triple digits in Tucson for the first time this year. && .AVIATION...Valid through 22/0Z SCT-BKN clouds AOA 10k ft AGL. SFC winds predominantly WLY-NWLY with afternoon speeds up to 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Aft 21/04Z, diurnal trends continue with light and variable winds overnight and winds up to 20 mph aft 21/19Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 8pm today for Fire Weather Zone 152 due to dry conditions with min RH`s in the single digits for much of the lower valleys. In addition, surface winds range up to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. There is a slight chance of isolated convection up in the White Mountains this afternoon, bringing the occasional lightning strike. For the rest of the week, calmer winds return (less than 20 mph) and we continue to stay dry with temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s for majority of the area. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ152. && $$ Giralte Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson