Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
832 FXUS65 KTWC 301000 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 300 AM MST Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will run above normal over the next seven days as the calendar turns from May to June. && .DISCUSSION...A clear sky prevailed across southern Arizona as a weak upper level trof passes through the Great Basin. Very little change in high temperatures as we turn the calendar from May to June. Will see the typical gusty, heat of the day, winds developing each day. The upper air pattern next week will see an upper low meandering off the Baja coast and building high pressure to our east. Southerly flow between these two features will slowly increase moisture over the area to near normal by middle to end of next week. Will there be enough moisture to kick off high-based storms? That is uncertain this far out and CPC has removed our area from leaning wetter than normal in the 8-14 day forecast. What is certain is that the area will be heating up toward the end of next week. Most recent NBM probabilities for the 1st 105 high of 2024 in Tucson next Thu/Fri is in the 30%-35% range. The high end of the temperature spread in the ECMWF ensembles next Thu/Fri is hotter versus GEFS/GEPS with small potential of 110 in Tucson. It`s that time of the year. && .AVIATION...Valid through 31/12Z. Clear skies/SKC conditions to a FEW clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind less than 10 kts and variable in direction thru 30/18Z and again aft 31/03Z. WLY/NWLY SFC wind at 8-14 kts and gusts to 14-24 kts between 30/18Z and 31/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and high temperatures 2-5 degrees above normal will continue through early next week. Expect min RH values of 3-8 percent in the lower elevations and 8-15 percent in the mountains the next 7 days, with poor overnight recoveries between 20-30 percent in most locations. 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal patterns through the weekend, with afternoon/early evening gustiness due to strong surface heating. Sustained 20-foot wind speeds will generally be 15 mph or less, except for the potential for some elevated winds at 15-20 mph Sunday afternoon east of Tucson. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson