Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
702 FXUS65 KTWC 302129 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 229 PM MST Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will run above normal over the next seven days as we close out May and begin June. && .DISCUSSION...Clear skies prevail across southeast Arizona this afternoon with sunny, warm, and dry conditions at the surface. Typical breeziness from strong daytime heating is anticipated through the afternoon. A few terrain driven cloud buildups may develop this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon over the White Mountains. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer as shortwave ridging fills in behind a weak upper level trof exiting the Great Basin today. Confidence is growing that there will be additional warming the second half of next week resulting in increased heat risk concerns. Most recent NBM probabilities for the 1st 105 degree high of 2024 in Tucson next Thu/Fri is in the 25%-30% range. The high end of the temperature spread in the ECMWF ensembles next Thu/Fri is hotter versus GEFS/GEPS with even a potential of reaching 110 in Tucson. Model ensembles also continue to hint at noticeable moisture increase the second half of next week. Southerly flow developing between an upper low off the Baja coast and the strong ridge of high pressure to our east will advect some moisture north. Depending on how strong this flow is, there could be sufficient moisture in place for dry thunderstorms in the White Mountains next Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 01/00Z. SKC conditions then evolving into a FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL aft 31/04Z. SWLY-WLY SFC winds in the afternoons, generally under 10kts with the occasional wind gust up to 20 kts. Otherwise, light and variable overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and high temperatures 2-5 degrees above normal will continue through early next week. Expect min RH values of 3-8 percent in the lower elevations and 8-15 percent in the mountains the next 7 days, with poor overnight recoveries between 20-30 percent in most locations. 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal patterns through the weekend, with afternoon/early evening gustiness due to strong surface heating. Sustained 20-foot wind speeds will generally be 15 mph or less, except for the potential for some elevated winds at 15-20 mph Sunday afternoon east of Tucson. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Public...Van Stratten Aviation...Giralte Fire Weather....Van Stratten Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson