278
FXUS65 KTWC 210858
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
158 AM MST Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry conditions with breezy afternoons at times
this week. Temperatures will remain near or slightly above average
for late May. A ridge of high pressure should bring hotter
temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A larger scale mean trough over much of the
Great Basin and intermountain west will keep temperatures near
climo this week. The gradient between this feature and high
pressure over much of Mexico will bring breezy afternoons at
times. Any precip chances will remain well north of the area.

Ensemble means suggest positive height anomalies early next week
as Tucson makes another run at it`s first 100 degree day of the
year the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 22/12Z
SCT clouds AOA 18k ft AGL. Lighter SFC winds this morning and
again overnight, with gusty SWLY-WLY winds 15 to 20 mph in the
afternoon between 21/19Z and 22/03Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with breezy afternoons at times
into this coming weekend. Minimum RH values bottoming out in the
single digits in valleys with poor to fair overnight recoveries.
Temperatures near typical values for late May, with hotter
afternoons possible early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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