250
FXUS65 KTWC 172046
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
146 PM MST Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with higher temperatures this weekend. A weak
trough will bring temperatures down to near-normal early next
week and breezy afternoon winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies across SE AZ this afternoon with
the peppering of cumulus clouds, mainly out east. Temperatures are
on the rise as we head into the weekend with a 29% chance of
hitting 100F in Tucson on Saturday. After that, temperatures start
to back off and drop to near normal by Monday and Tuesday of next
week. This is due to a low pressure system swinging by the area Monday
and Tuesday. This will also bring breezy afternoon winds with the
potential for some isolated dry thunderstorms along the higher
terrain. After that system passes, we move into a period of
predominantly zonal flow through the rest of the week. This will
keep us dry with temperatures near to below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 19/00Z.
Lingering FEW-SCT clouds AOA 8-10k ft dissipate by 18/03Z and
remain SKC through the remainder of the TAF period. WLY SFC winds
generally under 10 kts through 18/04Z before becoming light and
variable overnight. SWLY SFC winds pick back up after 18/20Z with
speeds generally less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions today and into this weekend with
min RHs in the single digits for the lower valleys and the teens
for the higher terrain. Temperatures this weekend approach the
high 90s for much of the valleys, with Saturday being the hottest
day, before dropping to near normal by Tuesday. Westerly 20-foot
winds will generally follow diurnal trends through the beginning
of next week with gusty afternoon winds (less than 30 mph).
However, Monday and Tuesday will have the strongest 20-foot winds
due to a passing system to our north (wind gusts up to 35 mph).
In addition, there is potential for isolated dry thunderstorms
Monday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Giralte

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson