124
FXUS63 KUNR 270817
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
217 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer today and Tuesday

- Thunderstorms return for the last half of the week. Marginal
  risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

Water vapor shows compact shortwave across the Dakotas. A few
Lingering showers across northwestern an southwestern South
Dakota will end early this morning as shortwave slides eastward.
Dry weather expected for today with breezy northwest winds across
the South Dakota plains. Upper level ridge builds across the area
tonight/Tuesday with an uptick in temperatures. Highs mainly in
the 70s Tuesday and 80s on Wednesday. Upper trough digs across
the Rockies Wednesday with lead impulse moving into the western
Dakotas Wednesday afternoon/evening. Low level moisture increases
with robust southerly flow. With MLCAPE around 1500J/KG in the
vicinity of the Black Hills Wednesday afternoon and sufficient
shear for rotating updrafts, there is potential for some large
hail/damaging wind gusts. Upper trough will impact the area
through the weekend as it slowly moves eastward through the
Northern Plains. This will bring a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1123 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions can generally be expected through the forecast
period. Lingering showers over southwest SD will dissipate over
the next few hours. Breezy northwesterly winds will develop over
much of the area on Monday, especially the western SD plains,
where some gusts to over 30 kts can be expected during the late
morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7
AVIATION...26