Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
846 FXUS63 KUNR 301633 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1033 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and unsettled at times late this week. - Warm weather for this weekend and beyond, with a drier pattern likely developing for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday) Issued at 245 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northwest SD, with a cold front pushing through western SD and the NE panhandle. Upper level analysis has trough located across the northern and central Rockies, with energy out ahead of it across much of the Plains. Main piece of energy has shifted north and east of the forecast area, with secondary wave moving across western SD in vicinity of the front. KUDX radar shows scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from far northeast WY to much of western and central SD, with more isolated activity from southern portions of northeast WY into southwest SD. Temps are mostly in the 50s with west-northwest winds behind the front, mostly from the south ahead of it. Upper trough to the west will only slowly track east over the next couple of days, with at least a couple more disturbances within it tracking across the northern Plains through Friday night. Showers and storms with the current disturbance will continue to track east- northeast across the area through the mid to late morning hours with the cold front. Highs today will range from the upper 50s/lower 60s across northeast WY and the Black Hills to the lower 70s toward south central SD, with breezy northwesterly winds across northwest into west central SD. Additional showers and storms will redevelop along the nearly stalled out front from eastern SD to central NE this afternoon. A few showers and storms could redevelop across far south central SD in the afternoon, in closer vicinity to the front, but much of the activity and stronger storm potential is expected to be east of the forecast area. Farther west, there is likely to be a break in shower activity from later this morning into tonight. However, the next disturbance pushing through the trough should bring increasing chances for showers later tonight and Friday. A few storms will likely develop across at least southern SD. The threat for severe storms looks low at this point, but forecast MLCAPE to around 500 j/kg and modest shear over southwest/south central SD later Friday into Friday evening would support some potential for a strong storm or two. Highs on Friday will still be on the cooler side, mostly 60s and lower 70s. The main upper trough finally shifts east of the region Friday night/early Saturday, with relatively flat ridge developing over the Rockies on Saturday. This will lead to warmer temps over the weekend, with highs back in the 70s and 80s, warmest on Sunday. Saturday looks to be the drier day over the weekend, but cannot rule out some chances for showers and storms toward south central SD in the afternoon and evening, in closer vicinity to a warm front that is expected to lift northward across NE during the day. Forecast CAPE and shear in that area Saturday afternoon do support potential for strong to severe storms. A more widespread chance for showers and storms should develop Sunday afternoon and evening as the ridge shifts east and an upper level disturbance likely crosses the northern Plains. The warm front is also expected to be located across the forecast area, with an approaching cool front to the west. At this time, there also looks to be potential for strong to severe storms later on Sunday. Above average temperatures will continue through a good portion, if not all of next week, as a stronger ridge gradually builds over the Rockies and into the high Plains. Highs in the 70s and 80s will persist, with some 90s not out of the question by the end of next week if the ridge builds far enough east into the Plains. Potential for isolated/widely scattered storms persists early in the week, but building ridge would lead to mainly dry conditions for mid to late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday) Issued At 1031 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions will continue through this evening. After midnight or so, showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop across portions of northeastern WY and western SD, resulting in some MVFR conditions through Friday morning. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...26 AVIATION...Pojorlie