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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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639 FXUS63 KUNR 241055 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 455 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds subside later today - Relatively active pattern expected through Memorial Day weekend - Upper level ridge brings milder and drier weather mid-week next week && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday) Issued at 117 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 07z surface analysis showed low near KMBG with cold front into central NE and trough into southeast MT. Upper low spinning over K2WX per water vapour with compact deformation zone blob of precipitation rotating through far northeast WY/northwest SD per regional radar loop. Synoptic winds starting to pick up over western SD as pressure rises increase behind surface trough. Main concern in the short term is wind. Today, upper/surface low moves northeast. Most guidance depicts 3-6mb/3hr pressure rises bubbling through western SD this morning. Boundary layer winds increase to 35-50kts with probabilistic guidance showing 60%+ chance of 40kt+ wind gusts with 30-60% chance of 48kt+ wind gusts in the squeeze area just east of the Black Hills. Even though wind gust speeds have lollygagged early this morning, current headlines still look reasonable. Should be able to drop southwest SD later this morning, assessing the state of northwest SD per observations around the same time. Precipitation shield quickly moves northeast of the CWA with subsidence bringing clearing skies today. Temperatures will be near guidance. Tonight, pleasantly cool weather foreseen. Saturday, shortwave slides east/southeast across the area bringing a chance of showers/TS. Buoyancy/shear profiles not supportive of organized active storms. Better-defined shortwave/upper-low zips through the area for Saturday night through Sunday night with robust PoPs warranted. Not sure the entire period will be a washout, but most folks should get some QPF (25-50% >0.25"). Upper ridge pops up late Monday through most of next week resulting in mild/mostly dry weather per probabilistic/ensemble guidance. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued At 449 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Area of MVFR conditions over northwestern into central SD associated with -RA will exit the region from west to east through this morning with the forecast area clear of precip by around 14-15z. VFR conditions can then be expected areawide through the rest of the forecast period. Gusty northwest winds are expected across much of the western South Dakota plains through the morning hours and will then gradually decrease through the afternoon. Widespread gusts of 40 to 45 kts are expected. Gusts of up to 50kts are possible over the plains adjacent to the eastern Black Hills, which includes KRAP. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 2 PM MDT this afternoon for SDZ001-002-012- 013-026-078. Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for SDZ014-032-043. Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for SDZ027-041- 075-076. High Wind Warning until 2 PM MDT this afternoon for SDZ031-072- 073. Wind Advisory until 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ this afternoon for SDZ044-046-047-049-077. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson AVIATION...Wong