Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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414 FXUS63 KUNR 030408 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1008 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening, mainly over south-central SD, with a few stronger storms further west into western SD and the Black Hills. - Warm weather expected for much of the upcoming week, with drier conditions developing mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Water vapor shows upper trof over the Northern Rockies with next upper trof beginning to move inland the Pac NW. At the surface, trof extends through the western Dakotas southward into the NE panhandle and eastern CO. Cold front just recently moved through Rapid City. Early afternoon temps range from the upper 60s in northeast WY to the lower 80s in south-central SD. Still seeing mostly fair wx cumulus across the forecast area as the atmosphere is taking some time to recover from the overnight/early morning convection. MLCAPE is ranging from 1000-1500J/kg along/east of the surface trof/cold front and upwards of 2500J/kg across south-central SD with modest shear in place. Should start seeing some convection developing over the Black Hills area in the next hour or two, with additional activity from northeast WY through southwest and south-central SD. There could be a few stronger storms in areas west of the surface trof/cold front, but the better severe threat will be across south-central SD where MLCAPE may approach 3500J/kg with increasing deep layer shear as upper trof nudges eastward. The best chance for the severe storms over south-central SD will be in the late afternoon/evening hours with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Storms will gradually end by later this evening. Southwest flow aloft quickly returns on Monday with warm front lifting north across the area. Areas on the SD plains should reach well into the 80s with a couple locations south/east of the Black Hills close to 90. Could be a few late day showers/storms, but overall coverage should be limited and severe storms are not expected. Next upper trof crosses the NortheWarm today with chances for showers and thunderstorms. rn Rockies into the Northern Plains Monday night into Tuesday for a slightly better chance for showers/storms with the best lift across northeast WY and northwest SD. Severe storms are not expected. Highs Tuesday will be mostly in the 70s. Upper ridge then gets established across the western CONUS for mid to late week, with drier and warm conditions expected for our area. However, ridge axis looks to remain to our west with mainly northwest flow across the Northern Plains. This should keep temps from getting too hot. Upper ridge will slowly break down and shift south for very late in the week and next weekend, with a more unsettled pattern developing for our area. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night) Issued At 1008 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson AVIATION...Wong