Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
352 FXUS65 KVEF 271622 AAA AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 922 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A stray thundershower or two is possible today in the Sierra but otherwise dry conditions are expected areawide. Afternoon breezes can be expected each day with temperatures several degrees above normal through the end of the week. && .UPDATE...A couple of items with the morning update. Included the mention of haze in parts of southern Mohave County due to proximity and southerly winds from the Refuge Wildfire located in the lower CRV, north of Yuma. HRRR not impressive with convective potential along the southern Sierra later this afternoon/early evening. However, same as yesterday did blend camPoPs with the NBM to at least mention a 10%-20% chance for showers or thunderstorms. Due to the lack of instability any thunderstorm will brief with the probability higher north into Mono County. Updated package will be out soon. && .PREV DISCUSSION...1224 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 .SHORT TERM...through Tuesday. Ridge axis will build across the Intermountain West today with heights climbing across the region. This will allow temperatures to heat up further today, topping out a 2-3 degrees higher than the temperatures observed Sunday. Just enough mid level moisture combined with strong surface heating may result in a brief thundershower near the crest of the Sierra, but elsewhere conditions will remain dry. There will be some light afternoon southerly breezes but overall a very pleasant Memorial Day is in store. Very similar conditions are expected for Tuesday though increasing troughing will nudge into the Pacific Northwest, turning our flow aloft more southwesterly and resulting in a slight uptick in afternoon breezes. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday. Model clusters are in better agreement today showing high pressure tracking from the eastern Pacific into western North America during the period, and low pressure in Canada remaining progressive rather than deepening over the western US. Thus, confidence is even higher in dry and very warm weather for our region. NBM 1D viewer shows that the probability for high temps reaching 100F at KLAS during the period has risen slightly from yesterday and now sits at 50-60% each day. Aside from the heat, impactful weather remains unlikely through the period. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and diurnal winds expected today, with light northwesterlies in the early-morning, northeasterlies late-morning, southeasterlies in the afternoon, and then returning southwesterlies after sunset. Speeds will remain less than 8 kts through the day, though after sunset, there is a 30% chance of speeds 10 kts or higher from the southwest. No operationally significant cloud cover expected through the TAF period. For the rest of southern Nevada, southwestern California, and northwestern Arizona...Light and diurnal winds expected at Las Vegas Valley TAF periods through the day today. Light winds at KBIH will give way to gusty south winds with speeds between 15 and 20 kts this afternoon, but will diminish after sunset. Breezy west winds at KDAG will drop off through the morning and afternoon, but will return with west-southwest gusts between 20 and 25 kts in the late- afternoon and evening. Breezy south winds between 10 and 20 kts expected at KIFP and KEED through the afternoon. No operationally significant cloud cover expected through the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Pierce SHORT TERM...Outler LONG TERM...Morgan AVIATION...Varian For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter