510
FXUS65 KVEF 291935
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1235 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather are on
tap for the region through the end of the week. Winds will pick up
this weekend as a trough digs along the West Coast and moves through
the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Wednesday.

Current satellite and water vapor imagery show a trough moving
through the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Outside of
today`s temperatures being a degree or two cooler than yesterday`s
high temperatures, impacts from this system will be minimal to
nonexistent for the Desert Southwest. Upper-level flow will become
will become more westerly to west-northwesterly on Thursday as this
trough ejects into the Northern Plains. This dry, weak, and
relatively zonal flow aloft will allow for temperatures to rebound a
few degrees as we head into the weekend, yielding widespread
Moderate HeatRisk for the lower elevations and valleys of the Mojave
Desert on Friday and Saturday.

A trough will dig along the West Coast and move through the area
over the weekend. This will result in gusty southwesterly winds
across the region on Saturday, with slightly weaker winds lingering
into Sunday. Given the hot, dry, and windy conditions forecast for
Saturday, fire weather is a concern as fuels continue to cure. As a
result, regional GACCs are highlighting a low-to-moderate risk for
significant fire potential across the southern and western portions
of our forecast area.

Forecast uncertainty increases as we head into next week and are
potentially faced with a low pressure system off the coast of
Southern California. The strength and position of this low will play
an important role in next week`s weather, specifically during the
latter portion of the week. The Climate Prediction Center is
highlighting a 33% to 40% chance for above normal precipitation
during the 8 to 14 day period (June 5th through June 11th), which
would be a result of this low aiding in the transport of moisture
into our forecast area. Even with this low sitting off the coast of
California, temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal
for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...South-southeast components 5-7
knots will become southwest 7-10 knots around 00Z and persist
overnight. North-winds around 10 knots will develop after 12Z
Thursday and continue through the morning before becoming east-
southeast 5-7 knots after 21Z Thursday. A clear sky will continue
through Thursday morning then few-scattered clouds with bases 12-15
kft AGL will develop late in the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...General south-southwest winds 10-15 knots can be
expected across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona this afternoon
and evening then decrease to less than 10 knots overnight. North
winds 10-15 knots will spread down through the Owens Valley and
central Nevada into southern Nevada early Thursday morning then will
decrease to less than 10 knots Thursday afternoon. West winds
gusting 20-25 knots will occur at KDAG this afternoon through late
tonight. A clear sky will continue tonight then scattered clouds
with bases around 15 kft MSL will develop over Inyo County and
southern Nevada in the afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Adair

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