Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
079 FXUS65 KVEF 280727 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1227 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions are expected areawide over the next 7 days with temperatures forecast to be several degrees above normal each day. Additionally, expect occasional periods of breezy winds. && .DISCUSSION...through Monday. The next seven days are shaping up to be pretty quiet. The ridge that was overhead today gets pushed east as a shortwave moves into the PacNW. Being so far north, we won`t see much weather with this system. The only thing of note is the increased southwest breezes (20-25 mph in some locations), which will also cause a slight uptick in the temperatures via mixing. These breezes will likely be of some consequence to the newly formed Bird Springs Fire burning in the foothills of the Spring Mountains, southwest of Las Vegas. Last update (as of 920 pm) had the fire at 150 acres and 15% containment. The increased winds tomorrow certainly won`t help fire-fighting efforts, especially when combined with afternoon RH values of 10% or less. Fortunately, breezes are expected to relax mid-week as the shortwave moves on and we are left in broad, zonal/WNW flow. This pattern holds until the weekend, when ensemble guidance hints at SW flow returning. During this time, temperatures slowly climb, with most locations in the mid/upper 90s and 100s. Probabilities for 100 degrees in Las Vegas rise from 50% on Wednesday to 85% on Friday. As mentioned, SW flow looks to make a return this weekend as guidance suggests a weak trough pushing through. Temps briefly fall in response to the decreasing 500mb heights, but don`t expect much relief. Highs still have an 80+ percent chance of being above- normal. Depending on how much wind is produced, we could see areas of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. Next week, there appears to be fairly good agreement on the redevelopment of a ridge over the Western US, but also a cutoff low somewhere off the SoCal/Baja Coast. Unless the low can tap into some moisture and send it our way (seems unlikely at this point), this pattern will keep us dry with above-normal temps. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds overnight will give way to light southeasterly winds late-morning. Through the afternoon, wind direction will vary between 150 and 200 before gusty southwest winds prevail mid-afternoon. Gust speeds will range from 20 to 25 kts and will gradually decrease after sunset. No operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF period. For the rest of southern Nevada, southwestern California, and northwestern Arizona...Light and variable winds overnight will give way to breezy south-southwest winds in the afternoon across the forecast area. Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites (KLAS, KVGT, KHND, KEED, KIFP) can expect southwest gusts between 20 and 25 kts, KBIH can expect south-southeast gusts to 20 kts, and KDAG can expect gusty west winds between 25 and 30 kts. Gusts will subside after sunset, with light and variable winds expected by early-morning. No operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Varian For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter