879
FXUS65 KVEF 231936
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1236 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect seasonal temperatures to continue through the
weekend with periods of gusty winds, particularly on Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning. The southern Great Basin and
Sierra could see a few showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday
but most areas will remain dry. High pressure builds in over the
area on Memorial Day bringing warmer, above normal temperatures to
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Friday through Saturday.

A broad upper level trough is in place over the western United
States for the next few days. On Friday into Friday night, a
shortwave will rotate around this pattern and result in increased
winds and moisture for the forecast area. An 850 mb low level jet
with peak wind speeds around 50 knots develops on Friday in
southeastern California. Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds
respond at the surface in San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave
counties. The strongest wind gusts will be between 40 and 50 mph in
western San Bernardino County including Barstow. A Wind Advisory is
in place for that area from 3 PM PDT Friday to 11 AM PDT Saturday.
Lesser gusts of 25 to 35 mph can be expected elsewhere. A Lake Wind
Advisory has also been issued for Lake Mead, Lake Mohave, and Lake
Havasu on Friday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds up to 35 mph
could create dangerous boating conditions, especially for smaller
boats and watercraft. Extra caution on the lakes is advised. The
shortwave exits to the east and the low level jet weakens on
Saturday morning, meaning lighter but still breezy winds, especially
in San Bernardino County. If the shortwave exit is slower than what
the current models are showing, stronger winds could last longer
into Saturday afternoon. Lastly, increased winds and low humidity
lead to increased fire weather concerns for much of the area. Ensure
that chains on vehicles are secured and all campfires are fully
extinguished.

The shortwave will draw increased moisture towards the forecast
area as seen in PWATs 120 to 150 percent of normal for this time of
year (.4 to .7 inch). Rain showers and thunderstorms may develop
over the southern Great Basin and Sierra on Friday and Saturday with
the help of orographic lift over the mountains. Precipitation totals
should remain light for any storms that form and the rest of the
forecast area will be dry. Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will
be a few degrees below average for late May, which means highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s for the Las Vegas area.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday.

The weather pattern will transition from cool northwest flow and
upper level troughing to something more typical of late May with a
building ridge over the Western US Sunday through the first half of
next week. This will mean warming temperatures and drier weather.
Temperatures will climb back above normal by Monday and remain there
for much of next week. How warm it gets will depend on the exact
strength of the ridge and where the ridge axis sets up, which long
range models show a few different camps in the exact set up of this
ridge as well as how much it will interact with a persistent
Pacific Northwest upper level trough.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds through mid afternoon are
forecast to become lighter, but also shift more to a east to
southeast direction. Wind speeds will generally remain less than 8
knots, but an occasional gust up to 14 knots can`t be completely
ruled out through the afternoon. Winds will shift back to the
southwest overnight with speeds less than 7 knots. On Friday,
winds will being light and variable, but will increase after 18z
out of the southwest with speeds 14-24 knots. FEW clouds around
12k feet along with SCT clouds around 25k feet late tonight and
Friday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Overall, winds will decrease to 10 knots or less across
the region this afternoon with the exception of western San
Bernardino County where westerly winds of 15-25 knots will increase
late this afternoon and continue into this evening. Most areas will
see light winds Friday morning, but southwest winds will increase
across the region by late morning and continue through the
afternoon. Southwest winds 15-25 knots will be fairly common with a
few areas seeing gusts up to 30 knots. FEW-SCT150 and SCT-BKN250
expected Friday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Gorelow

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