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899
FXUS61 KAKQ 291951
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
351 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level trough will bring isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms across primarily northern portions of the area
through this evening. A secondary upper trough will track
across the region Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
pleasant and less humid conditions are expected for Thursday
through the upcoming weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 350 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the north this
  afternoon and evening.

GOES water vapor channels depict a potent compact upper low
spinning across the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon. Isolated
to scattered showers/tstms have developed in advance of the
upper trough. Locally the best coverage has been across the NW
Piedmont counties, and generally the best coverage locally
should be along and NE of the I-64 corridor as the upper system
pushes ESE through this evening. Locally strong wind gusts are
possible with any showers/tstms given steep lapse rates and a
relatively dry sub-cloud layer. The main upper trough axis and
associated cold front will push from NW-SW later this evening
through the early overnight hours allowing drier air to arrive
from the NW bringing an end to any lingering showers and/or
tstms. The sky is expected to clear later tonight with
overnight/early morning lows dropping into the lower 50s NW to
lower 60s SE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 350 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant and comfortable Thursday and Friday with temperatures
  at or just below normal. Highs mainly in the 70s to around 80,
  with lows in the 50s. A few readings in the 40s are possible
  well inland.

- Warming temperatures but remaining dry for Saturday.

Surface high pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes as
weak low pressure lifts NE in vicinity of the Southern New
England coast Thursday. A secondary shortwave trough drops SE
across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon and evening. As a
result, partly sunny/variably cloudy conditions are expected to
develop by afternoon, with isolated showers possible later in
the afternoon and evening, primarily from central VA through
southern VA and NE NC. Any showers should be brief with limited
QPF. High temperatures will mainly be in the mid to upper 70s.
The surface high builds in from the NW Thursday night. Becoming
mostly clear with overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s NW
to the upper 50s SE.

Surface high pressure builds across the region Friday into
Saturday as the upper trough shifts offshore and as an upper
ridge builds across the Ohio Valley. Very pleasant and sunny
Friday with highs in the mid 70s and dewpoints dropping into the
40s. Comfortably cool Friday night/early Saturday morning with
lows ranging from the mid/upper 40s W to the lower to mid 50s
along the coast. The airmass modifies Saturday with highs
warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Still sunny and
pleasant with dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 350 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually warming temperatures return Sunday into the middle
  of next week.

- Low rain chances return with typical late day and evening
  showers and thunderstorms possible both Sunday and Monday.

Surface high pressure remains over the area Saturday night,
before shifting offshore Sunday. Low temperatures will mainly be
in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sunday morning, followed by highs
in the lower to mid 80s Sunday. The upper ridge builds across
the region, but does break down slightly later Sunday afternoon
and evening with a low probability of a few showers/tstms
drifting into western portions of the area. The upper ridge
becomes centered over the Southeast CONUS during the early to
middle portion of next week as zonal flow prevails from the
Great Lakes to the Northeast. This will lead to a steady warming
trend with highs in the lower to mid 80s early in the week
trending into the mid 80s to around 90F by Wednesday. Lows will
mainly be in the 60s. Chances of afternoon/evening shower/tstms
will mainly be 20% or less.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday...

An upper trough is approaching from the NW as of 18z. Isolated
to scattered showers and a few tstms are developing across the
area in advance of the trough, with SCT-BKN CU with bases of
5-7kft. The wind is generally SW 5-10kt inland, and NE to SE
along the coast. Isolated to scattered showers/tstms are
expected to pass across the region through about 02z, with some
lingering activity along the coast through 04-06z. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail with brief sub-VFR
conditions possible with a direct impact at any given terminal.
Locally strong wind gusts are also possible. Shower/tstm chances
are highest at SBY (40-50%), 30-40% at RIC, 20-30% at PHF/ORF,
and ~20% at ECG. Drier air arrives later tonight behind a cold
front. Mainly VFR Thursday with a NNW wind of 8-12kt (gusts to
near 20kt toward the coast) with SCT-BKN aftn CU, and a slight
chc of showers inland as another upper trough tracks across the
region.

A slight chc of showers lingers into Thursday evening across
southern VA and NE NC. Otherwise, high pressure builds across
the region Thursday night through Saturday, before sliding
offshore Sunday into Monday. Dry and VFR conditions are expected
to prevail Thursday night through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 pm EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers/storms with gusts of up to 40 kt expected to move NW to SE
across the waters late this afternoon and early evening.

- Cold frontal passage tonight may allow some gusts to 20 kt late
tonight into Thursday morning.

- Tranquil marine weather for this coming weekend.

Showers and storms over northern VA as of 230 pm are forecast to
move across mainly the northern waters late this afternoon into
early this evening. It is certainly conceivable that these
storms could produce brief gusts to 35 or 40 kt later this
afternoon and early this evening. In fact, Dulles just reported
a gust to 37 kt. These gusts will be very brief (less than 30
min) and they will be handled by special marine warnings if
needed.

The actual cold front moves across the waters late this evening,
with high pressure building in immediately behind it. Guidance wind
speeds have bumped up slightly across the central Chesapeake Bay
after 09z. As such, have opted to issue a small craft advisory for
those areas late tonight into Thursday for north winds of 15-20 kt.
Winds will subside Thursday afternoon to 10 to 15 kt before
increasing again to 15 to 20 kt on Friday due to another surge ahead
of the high pressure center over the Ohio Valley. Outside of the
gusty shower or storm, seas will generally be 2 feet tonight
building to 2 to 3 ft on Thursday and Friday. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the
bay tonight, building to 2 ft on Thursday and Friday.

Fairly tranquil marine weather is expected this weekend into early
next week. High pressure centered over the Middle Atlantic on
Saturday will slowly shift offshore by Monday. This will allow north
to northwest winds of 10 kt to shift to the south or southeast on
Monday. Winds will also increase to 15 kt on Monday as the pressure
gradient tightens over the area between the high to the east and
developing low pressure west of the Appalachians. Models are in
disagreement in the timing, but they all show some type of boundary
moving through the region Tuesday or Wednesday. This will allow
southerly winds and seas to perhaps increase to small craft advisory
criteria but there is too much uncertainty to include this in the
forecast at this time.

Seas of 2 to 3 feet on Saturday will build to 4 to 5 ft by later
Sunday into Monday due to the increased southerly wind.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MRD