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503
FXUS61 KBGM 211753
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
153 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region today will slowly give way to a
cold frontal passage Wednesday and Thursday with a threat of
strong thunderstorms. This front will settle south of the
region giving us a short break Friday before pushing northward
again this weekend with additional chances of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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1250 PM Update

Pushed back the start time of the scattered shower and t`storm
activity later today, closer to the latest 15z HRRR. Latest SPC
mesoanalysis still shows sufficient MLCIN to cap any convective
initiation at this time. Thinking convection may begin to
develop by late afternoon, and it could move over the Syracuse
metro area and northern Finger Lakes into the early evening
hours. Otherwise, no significant changes to the near term at
this time. The rest of the area will see partly sunny skies with
temperatures rising into the 80s or near 90 later this afternoon.

830 AM Update

Only minor adjustments to the forecast today, with a few pop up
t`storms already this morning over the northern Finger
lakes...these may reach the Syracuse metro area over the next
1-2 hours. Otherwise, minor tweaks to PoPs and t`storm coverage
this afternoon based on the CAMs. This brought PoPs a touch
further north, with generally dry weather expected for the Twin
Tiers and NE PA this afternoon. Looking like another very warm
day, with highs 85-91 for the valleys & 80-85 for the higher
elevations. Dew points mix out into the upper 50s to low 60s
this afternoon, so it will only feel slightly humid out there.

630 AM Update

Only minor changes to account for fog coverage with the sunrise
update. Forecast discussion below on track.

High pressure will move off the east coast gradually through
tonight. This will result in a continued warming trend through
Wednesday with southwesterly winds. Most locations should rise well
into the 80`s with a few locations close to 90 both today and on
Wednesday. With dewpoints only around 60, heat index values should
not be much higher. Lows generally in the 60`s tonight.

The one wrinkle today looks to be a weak mid-level disturbance
moving across central New York this afternoon and evening. Lift and
moisture look fairly limited but enough to spark off isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

After a break in the action early Wednesday a frontal boundary still
looks to move in later Wednesday to break down the ridge. Enough
lift and moisture looks present for at least some scattered showers
with the frontal passage. Instability during the afternoons surface
CAPE is currently modeled to be around 1,500 J/KG. Model soundings
continue to show steep low and even somewhat steep mid level lapse
rates. Some mid-level dry air also looks to be present as well later
Wednesday. 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to be on the weaker side
which works against the possibility of strong to severe storms at
only 20-30 knots.

Most modeling does indicate that will be enough shear though for
some thunderstorms to develop during the mid and late afternoon
hours and organize into a few clusters. These clusters of
thunderstorms have the potential for some gusty winds and hail as
well.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM update...

Scattered showers and potentially a few stronger thunderstorms
are expected to continue into the early evening hours Wednesday
night before becoming more isolated in nature later on with the
loss of daytime heating. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 60s
and with dew points not much lower than the actual temperature,
it will have a little bit of a muggy feel to it. The cold front
responsible for the convection late Wednesday will stall out
across NE PA and the southern Catskills Thursday. A weak surface
low will move northeast along the boundary aiding in the
development of additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
with the convection most concentrated near the boundary. Dew
points in this area will reach the mid 60s and shear values look
decent, but CAPE and mid-level lapse rates are not as high
compared to late Wednesday/Wednesday evening. Highs Thursday
will be generally in the 70s, but near 80 degrees in the Wyoming
Valley and southern Sullivan County.

Cooler, drier air will filter in Thursday night and skies will
be clearing out as surface high pressure builds in. Lows
Thursday night will fall back into the 50s. Friday looks largely
dry with some sunshine and a comfortably warm afternoon with
dew points in the 50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s to the
low 80s in some valley locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM update...

Later Friday night through Saturday features a low chance
(25%-40%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms as a upper level
shortwave lifts northeastward toward our area. Some additional
moisture may try to stream in from the north from a broad
shortwave trough that is expected to pass by to our north and
west. Sunday looks dry before an area of low pressure and
associated cold front brings the chance for showers and
thunderstorms back into the area Monday. Highs Saturday and
Sunday are expected to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s at
night. Monday`s highs look to be a little lower from the upper
60s into the low and mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

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150 PM Update

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. The one
thing to watch will be the potential for scattered thunderstorms
in the vicinity of SYR and RME from about 21z to 01z this
evening. Included a tempo at these two taf sites for this
potential. Confidence is low to moderate in a thunderstorm
directly impacting the TAF sites at this time.

Otherwise, there will be a few to sct mid and high level clouds
around through the period. Expected a general light southwesterly
wind during the daytime hours. There could be a diurnal wind
shift at RME, ITH, AVP and ELM to more east- southeast or calm
winds overnight. Southwest winds resume by late Wednesday
morning and into the early afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with
restrictions, highest chances from 19z to 02z.

Wednesday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR. Patchy early
morning valley fog possible.

Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MJM