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679
FXUS61 KBGM 231856
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
256 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Quiet conditions will persist through Saturday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms return late Saturday but will exit the region by
Sunday. While Sunday will be dry, another system will move into the
region by Monday, resulting in a wet end to the holiday weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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255 PM Update...

High pressure will be in control this forecast period, giving us a
quiet end to the work week. Temperatures will fall into the 50s
tonight. While winds will be light and skies will be partly to
mostly clear, conditions will be to dry for fog to develop.
Tomorrow, sunny skies, temps in the 70s/low 80s, and dewpts in the
40s/50s will result in a pleasant day. Overnight temps will be
slightly cooler Friday night, falling into the 40s and 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
335 AM Update...

High pressure in control at the surface and weak ridging aloft
will lead to dry conditions Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be mostly clear and with cooler, drier air
filtering in, did blend in a little of the NBM 10th percentile
into the forecast. Lows will mainly be in the upper 40s and low
50s.

After the dry start to the day Saturday, clouds will increase
as an upper level shortwave and weak frontal boundary approach
the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop later in the day ahead of the front and continue into
Saturday night as the front gradually moves through. Highs
Saturday will range from the upper 70s to the low 80s. Some
valley locations may reach the mid 80s, especially with the
trend being slower with the arrival of precipitation. Lows
Saturday night will be milder in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

Sunday is expected to be largely dry with just a slight chance
(<25%) of a shower or thunderstorm with the heating of the day
with the front still close by. The best chance for this would be
over NE PA and the southern Catskills. High temperatures will
be similar to Saturday in the upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
335 AM Update...

A warm front associated with our next storm system is expected
to lift north toward the area Sunday night and the main area of
low pressure lifts northeast into the Great Lakes on Monday,
Memorial Day. As a result, showers and thunderstorms look likely
for the holiday. As the low continues northeastward into SE
Canada, a broad upper trough remains over the region with a
couple of embedded shortwaves rotating through. This will keep
the area unsettled with a chance of additional showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, especially during peak
heating hours.

Highs Memorial Day are expected to be in the low to mid 70s,
then it will cool down into the 60s by Wednesday. Lows Tuesday
and Wednesday night will be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds become
light and variable overnight before picking back up by midday
Friday. Northeasterly winds tomorrow afternoon will become
gusty with peak gusts of 15 to 20 kts possible.

Outlook...

Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly western areas Sat afternoon, then
spreading east overnight.

Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

Monday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BTL