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031
FXUS61 KBGM 280624
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
224 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Variable clouds and sunshine along with periodic rounds of
scattered showers will linger through midweek, followed by drier
conditions expected toward the end of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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225 AM Update...
A broken line of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to
push east across portions of Central NY, though it has been
weakening over the past hour. Made some tweaks to PoP grids to
time it out of the area. Looks as though precip will stay north
of the NY/PA line.

820 PM Update...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms flank our area to
the north, west and south early this evening with limited to no
precipitation over the bulk of our region of responsibility.
Looking for a diminishing trend to thunderstorm activity over
the next few hours with loss of instability and forcing. Once
activity ends by about 06Z the remainder of the night should be
tranquil with partly cloudy skies to start followed by
increasing lower level cloudiness by morning.

Overnight temperatures are still on track for the 50s with
dewpoints close by. Usually, this would mean areas of dense fog
primarily in the valleys, however with winds expected to remain
somewhat active, fog should be very limited.

Previous discussion...
A band of N to S rain is currently pushing east of I-81. This
line has been very underwhelming as the perceived instability we
thought was developing ahead of it during the morning did not
materialize. Winds aloft were strong enough to be dragged down
to the surface with the heavy showers that have developed, but
it seems a stable layer remains at the surface, keeping severe
weather from developing. Low level shear is very strong across
the area, with 0-3km shear near 45kts, so even with no
instability for thunderstorms, we will see some rotation along
the line that could spawn some showernados. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 9pm as another round
of development is expected later this afternoon. Some clearing
behind this first batch of showers should keep CAPE values
between 500 and 1000 j/kg combined with shear values above 30kts
and lift from a shortwave moving through the region should
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Storms
should dissipate by late evening, followed by another round of
isolated showers moving through ahead of a weak cold front.

Given the lack of convectively driven downpours, flooding
chances have diminished across most of the area. The Catskills
and Poconos still have a chance for isolated flash flooding
across more flashy basins if we can get another round of heavy
showers move over the area later this evening.

Temps tonight will be in the 50s, with dewpoints in the 50s so
it will feel a little muggy out.

Tuesday will see another round of afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms as a shortwave rotates through the area from the
Ohio River Valley. WNW flow will advect in some cooler temps
aloft, increasing lapse rates while partly sunny skies will
bring some weak instability to the area. Showers will be
diurnal, popping up in the early afternoon and dissipating
during the early evening hours. Temperatures tomorrow will be in
the low to mid 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
1020 AM Update...
Forecast was completed earlier than usual due to operations
being focused on event-at-hand. Little change from what was
already discussed below, other than to linger rain chances
longer Tuesday evening for Central NY.

Previous discussion...
A shortwave embedded in the long wave upper trough overhead
will be moving away from the area Tuesday night, and shower or
thunderstorm activity across CNY will taper off. Lows Tuesday
night range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s. Another shortwave
will dive southeastward toward the area Wednesday enhancing the
cooler, northwest flow over the region. High temperatures will
mainly be in the 60s with the Wyoming Valley perhaps squeaking
out 70 degrees. There is some uncertainty with regards to the
shower coverage this day with the main lobe of energy with the
shortwave looking to pass by to the south. This would limit
showers over CNY Wednesday but lead to a higher chance over NE
PA. PoPs were lowered some from NBM across CNY to reflect this
idea. This disturbance is expected to push off to the east
Wednesday night and drier, colder air filters in dropping low
temperatures into the 40s. Some of the highest elevations are
expected to dip back into the low 40s.

Yet another shortwave looks to drop south out of Canada on
Thursday, but with the drier air in place and this feature
projected to pass by to our south and west, any showers look
isolated in nature. It will remain cool with highs again
generally in the 60s and overnight lows falling back well into
the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1020 AM Update...
Forecast was completed earlier than usual due to operations
being focused on event-at-hand. Little change from what was
already discussed below for what appears to be a mainly dry
period with temperatures trending from slightly below average
initially to near average over the weekend.

Previous discussion...
Surface high pressure builds in from the west on Friday and the
long wave upper trough finally moves off the coast by the start
of the weekend. Ridging builds in at the upper levels and as a
result, a pretty nice weekend looks to be in store with largely
dry conditions. High temperatures will be on the rise going from
the 60s to near 70 degrees on Friday to the mid and upper 70s
by the time Sunday rolls around.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions will trend towards MVFR as lower clouds over WNY
push east. Could see an uptick in wind at SYR as well, in light
of observations over W NY where gusts around 30 knots have been
noted. Otherwise, expect showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms to develop through the day Tuesday, with MVFR to
fuel alt ceilings prevailing. Probability of thunder at any
given terminal too low to mention at this point.

Outlook...

Late Tuesday night through Wednesday...Occasional restrictions
likely from multiple batches of showers and thunderstorms, with
the focus shifting to the Twin Tiers and NE PA Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.
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&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JAB/JTC/MPH
SHORT TERM...DK/MDP
LONG TERM...DK/MDP
AVIATION...JAB/MPH