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120
FXUS61 KBTV 291915
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
315 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A dry weather pattern is becoming established over Vermont and
northern New York. After some cooler conditions tonight through
Friday morning, a steady warming trend will begin. Fantastic weekend
weather is expected. Localized to isolated showers activity will
return with the work week as temperatures climb into the 80s during
the afternoon.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 313 PM EDT Wednesday...Dry air is slowly winning out. Some
stratocumulus remains, and these should dissipate with the loss of
daytime heating. Although there will be a few mid to high clouds
streaming in from a vort northeast from the Ohio River Valley. This
poses two questions for tonight. How low can we go in radiational
cooling limbo, and can we get some fog? The proverbial bar is set at
300-500 ft above the ground where 10 to 15 knot winds should promote
some level of mixing. Based on how cool this airmass is following
the warm, damp air mass and calm winds, decided to lean on the
colder side and add fog in the favorable river valleys. It will
be cold enough in the hollows of the Adirondacks that some
patchy frost could develop, but it appears quite localized.
Probabilistic data suggests there is a low chance this could
impact the Northeast Kingdom as well if they radiate out better
than currently forecast. We`ll see if SLK can hit 32, but
currently have 33 at the Adirondack Airport.

Elsewhere, mainly 40s are expected, followed by warming into the mid
60s to lower 70s once again. It should be another gorgeous day with
a steady north wind around 10 mph on Thursday. Thursday night looks
like a repeat performance with 10 to 15 knot winds at 300-500 ft
above the ground. So we`ll see how well our weather stations do in
their game of radiational cooling limbo tonight as a persistence
forecast will likely work best. Though it may be a degree or
two warmer. So once again, some patchy frost will be possible in
cold hollows of the Adirondacks along with river valley fog as
the sun rises Friday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 313 PM EDT Wednesday...Friday is shaping up to be a beautiful
day as upper level ridging and surface high pressure build over the
region, with some sunshine and dry weather expected to round out the
month of May. Daytime highs will be pleasant, with temperatures in
the upper 60s into the lower 70s and dewpoints maxing out in the
40s. Heading into the overnight hours, low temperatures will drop
into 40s and low 50s, which is near climatological normals for this
time of year.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 313 PM EDT Wednesday...Upper level ridging and surface high
pressure will remain across the region heading into the weekend,
with quiet stretch of weather to start off June. The ridge will
begin to break down towards the middle of next week, with increasing
chances for showers by Tuesday with a warm front lifting through the
region. Temperatures will gradually warm into early next week, with
high temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday.
Overnight lows will also see a warming trend, with temperatures in
the 40s/50s over the weekend climbing into the 60s by midweek.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Clouds are slowly scattering out, but
bases around 2000-3000 ft agl are resulting in intervals of MVFR
cigs, mainly at KBTV, KMPV, and KSLK, as well as summits in and
out of clouds. Ceilings should trend upwards and skies becoming
mostly clear. North to northwest winds of 4 to 9 knots
sustained are likely and brief gusts up to 15 knots are
possible through 22z-00z. Mainly clear skies and light to
terrain driven flow is expected tonight. Some fog may develop in
river valleys, but 10-15 knot winds at 300-500 ft agl may
prevent formation, and for now have just noted VCFG in KEFK,
KMPV, and KSLK from about 09z to 13z. North to northwest winds
increase to 6 to 10 knots beyond 13z with mid clouds around
7000-12000 ft agl, mainly in southern Vermont.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Haynes