-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
566
FXUS61 KBTV 050524
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
124 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from an isolated shower, dry conditions will continue
through tonight as temperatures remain above normal. More
coverage of showers with a few thunderstorms is expected for
tomorrow, with slightly higher heat and humidity. Then the
pattern turns less hot and rather unsettled with periods of
showers on Thursday and through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 117 AM EDT Wednesday...Still watching a very localized
thunderstorm cell moving from central Addison County into
northern Rutland/Windsor Counties early this morning. Localized
rainfall amounts near 1.0 have been observed near Middlebury and
Addison, while the rest of the area is dry. Have updated to
capture latest trends for isolated storm, while also placing
some patchy fog in areas that received rainfall earlier this
evening. Rest of fcst in good shape with some slightly higher
humidity values and warmer temps tonight.

Previous discussion...
For the vast majority of locations, today marks the 7th
consecutive day of dry weather. It was also another very warm
day with temperatures ranging through the 80s. Widely isolated
showers that were terrain driven may perk up early this evening
before losing steam with loss of heating, as there will be
little upper level forcing to maintain instability tonight. That
being said, any stronger shower/pulse thunderstorm could
survive as a relatively light rain shower into the first part of
the night, with some low PoPs indicated into portions of south
central Vermont in case showers from the west can survive. As
weak surface high pressure settles to our southeast, some
surface southerly flow will develop such that overnight
temperatures will be relatively warm compared to the last couple
of nights. The milder air will also be due to increasing low
level moisture contributed by west/southwest low level flow
around the ridge, as source air will be from the Midwest where
dew points are currently in the low to mid 60s.

For Wednesday into Wednesday night, an upper level ridge will be
dampened by a wave trying to drop southeastward out of southern
Quebec. Our region, extending eastward through northern New
England, looks to be in the sweet spot for higher instability
than to our south and west as we see some upper level height
falls while low level air continues to get a bit juicier with
weak warm air advection. As such, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will blossom, and potentially well before noontime
given progged CAPE being driven by the aforementioned upper
level wave rather than just surface heating. In fact, progged
precipitable water and instability both look to trend lower in
the afternoon, with better chances for additional showers and
thunderstorms tending to shift north and east during that
period. Overall, we remain unconcerned with widespread hazardous
weather given recent dryness, relatively weak forcing for
thunderstorms tomorrow. Will still need to watch for a spot or
two where a downpour could linger and produced heavy rain in a
small footprint, as cloud layer flow will be be pretty light.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front passes through Thursday into Thursday night, bringing
widespread rainfall. The overall flow will be relatively light so
there will be the chance of some slow-moving or training showers.
However, the flow should be just fast enough to push the front
through and mostly limit this potential. The front will move to the
east of the region late Thursday night and there should be a decent
break in the precipitation after. Overall, thinking QPF will
generally be between 0.75 and 1.25 inches. While this is higher than
previously forecast, the flooding threat is still very limited.
Overall, the percentage of ensemble members forecasting over an
inch has not changed much from yesterday, still around 30%. However,
over 90% are now forecasting over 0.5 inches instead of 50-60%, so
the solutions mostly converged to around yesterday`s 75th
percentile. Therefore, it is unlikely that it trends much higher,
though there will still likely be localized higher amounts where the
heavier showers develop. Given the dry antecedent conditions, any
flash flooding is unlikely. The WPC has the region in a marginal
risk ERO for up to a 5 percent chance of flash flooding and that
seems reasonable, though it is probably in the low end of the range.
Mainstem river flooding is not a concern. Highs on Thursday will be
in the 70s to around 80 and lows Thursday night will be in the 50s
and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled pattern will be in place during much of this period as
a closed off low will be lingering over the North Country. Overall,
shower coverage will increase during the day as diurnal heating and
cold air aloft cause instability and it will wane at night as the
atmosphere stabilizes. Embedded shortwaves will pivot around this
low and increase shower chances at different times and will provide
the lift to continue the showers overnight if they come through then.
Right now, it looks like showers will be more numerous through
Sunday and become a little more scattered starting Monday. The
closed off low finally looks to exit the region mid to late week and
the shower chances will subsequently become much less numerous.
Temperatures during this period will be below to around normal, but
persistence will be the trend with little change in temperatures
between each day.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 06Z Thursday...Early morning radar is showing an
isolated thunderstorm across central/eastern Addison County,
which will not impact our TAF sites. Additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected between 15Z and 21Z today
and have placed VCSH in TAFs to cover potential. Also, there is
a small probability of localized fog at SLK this morning between
07-10z, just prior to sunrise as boundary layer moisture has
increased with earlier convection nearby. However, have noted
southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots developing between 200-400 AGL
toward sunrise, which may provide just enough mixing to limit
potential. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail for the next 12 to
24 hours, exception brief MVFR cigs/vis in any convective
showers today. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots develops by
15z.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
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Based on the current forecast, daily records are possible over
the next three days at some climate sites.

Record high maximum temperatures are possible today, primarily
at Massena and Montpelier. A record high minimum temperature may
occur at Plattsburgh for those nights. Record daily
precipitation is possible at Massena on Thursday.


Current Record High Temperatures:

June 5:
KMPV: 85/2021
KMSS: 88/1974


Current Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 5:
KPBG: 65/1963

June 6:
KPBG: 67/1973


Current Record Precipitation:

June 6:
KMSS: 1.09/1953
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Taber
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Taber
CLIMATE...Kutikoff