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461
FXUS61 KCAR 030929
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
529 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A back door cold front will cross the area from east to west
today, before dissipating near the Quebec border tonight. Weak
high pressure from the west then returns to the region through
Tuesday night, before slowly drifting east Wednesday and
Wednesday night. A complex storm system then slowly approaches
from the west late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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528 AM Update: Cldnss conts to slowly apch the NB/Ern ME border
erly this morn, and is still slated to begin crossing by mid
morn or so. Latest radar ref shows the shwr band weakening, xcpt
the part of the band nearing Eastport, where PoPs are lcly
upwards to 50 percent by mid Morn. The weakening trend of shwrs
will cont ovr the rest of the morn, with any shwr cvrg msly
isold ovr our FA for the remainder of the day. Otherwise, fcst
hrly temps/dwpts were updated into the late Morn hrs from trends
seen in latest avbl sfc obs with no chgs to fcst aftn high
temps.

Prev Disc: Whats left of an occluded sfc low and associated
upper low ovr the Ern Maritimes will cont moving SSE Tdy back
ovr the adjacent open N Atlc. Most of the remaining shwr band
will likely dissipate before reaching Ern ME due to downsloping
between the NB highlands and the Ern ME/NB border by erly to mid
Morn. Cyclonic flow alf, however, will allow xtnsv AC/SC cld
cvr to retrograde wwrd ovr the FA durg the day, with this cld
cvr xpctd to persist somewhat ovr the FA Tngt as the upper low
conts to make contd slow progress SE. High temps this Aftn will
be sig cooler than ystdy ovr Ern areas, but will still be be
warm ovr far NW vlys which be near the wrn edge of the SC cld
cvr. Temps will again fall to near seasonal ovrngt lows with
mainly ptly cldy skies and lgt and vrbl winds.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An omega block sets up through the period with high pressure at
the surface and aloft dominating area weather. The temperature
trend will be warmer from Tuesday to Wednesday as the cooler NE
flow ends and warmer 925/850mb temps arrive with the building
ridge. Under a generally light flow regime, sea breeze processes
will be in effect both days towards the coast with resultant
lower high temps compared to inland. The onshore flow and
increasingly moist air will promote coastal fog both nights,
especially Wednesday night.

Did add slight chance PoPs Wednesday afternoon for a slight
chance of a shower or thunderstorm in Piscataquis County.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The omega block breaks down slowly Thursday into Friday as a
vigorous upper level cut-off develops in the Great Lakes region
on Thursday. The question will be how quickly the block breaks
down, if at all for portions of the forecast area. The cut-off
upper low seems likely to stay west of the area late week and
have reduced PoPs on Thursday and Friday. Along the same lines,
increased high temps inland both days. In fact, in northern
Aroostook, Thursday may be as warm or warmer than Wednesday.
Closer to the coast, increased likelihood of onshore flow and
clouds should ensure cooler temps Thursday into the weekend.

Have capped PoPs at chance for Thursday night into the weekend
due to the uncertainty of the upper low meanderings and blocking.
Best chance for rain currently appears to be on Saturday as a
front pushes through, but all guidance has trended down on PoPs
and QPF for the late week into the weekend and it is not
inconceivable that northern and eastern Maine receive little
precip from the entire event.

Regardless of where the upper low wobbles through the weekend,
odds favor the upper ridge regenerating early to mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Tdy...all TAF sites initially unlmtd VFR, then VFR
clgs by Aftn. Lgt NE winds.

Tngt...all TAF sites VFR clgs to unlmtd VFR. Intermittent MVFR
clgs possible Nrn TAF sites. Lgt and vrbl winds.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday night into Wednesday...VFR with light
winds.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning...VFR with light winds
except near coastal sites such as BHB and BGR where odds of IFR
cigs/vis are greater than 50 percent.

Thursday afternoon...VFR with light winds.

Thursday night into Friday morning...VFR with light winds
except near coastal sites such as BHB and BGR where odds of IFR
cigs/vis are greater than 50 percent.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd Tdy and Tngt with winds/seas well
below SCA thresholds. Kept close to blended wv model guidance
with emphasis on NWPS for fcst wv hts. Wvs will be composed of
three spectral groups during this time; a very short 2-3sec
group, a short 4-6sec group, and a longer semi-swell group
around 8sec.

SHORT TERM: Strong stability through the period will ensure
generally light winds and seas no higher than 3 to 4 feet. The
stability will promote fog at times as early as Tuesday night.
Fog will become more likely Wednesday night into Thursday and
will remain a threat into the weekend. Southwest winds Tuesday
night into Wednesday will trend towards south to southeast for
late week into the weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW