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228
FXUS61 KCAR 010121
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
921 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds in this weekend and remains over the
area into early next week.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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9:20 PM Update...The sky has become mostly clear across the
north with some clouds lingering over the south. Modified cloud
cover through mid-evening to reflect this. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track.

Cumulus has developed over central sections of CWA this
afternoon. Regional radars showing echoes over this same area
but with cloud levels around 10kft do not think much is reaching
the ground. Webcams around the area confirm this to be the case
with dry boundary layer. Have removed thunder from the forecast
as well.

For tonight, skies should late this evening with temps dipping
down toward 40F acrs the north. Airmass warmer than last night
so not expecting any frost overnight acrs the area.

Mostly sunny skies expected on Saturday with deep mixing
up toward 750mb in the afternoon. This will likely result in
northerly winds gusting toward 20mph. Temps will be near
seasonal norms with highs around 70 and into the lower 70s over
most locations.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quiet weather from Saturday night through Monday. A blocked
upper level pattern persists, with an upper level low pressure
remaining parked to our east just south of Nova Scotia, while an
upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered just off to
our west. This puts us under dry northerly flow. Dry Saturday
night through Sunday night with mostly clear skies, and too much
subsidence Sunday for any diurnally driven showers. Warmer on
Sunday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, but dewpoints will
still be low (in the 40s), so it will still feel comfortable.
Perhaps a few afternoon showers on Monday as a weak vort max
rotates NE to SW around the upper level low to east, with a bit
more afternoon instability. Still, generally went with only 20
percent PoPs. Still warm Monday with highs in the mid 70s to
80s. Dewpoints up a touch from Sunday, but still reasonable with
generally low 50s. Fairly light winds the whole period Saturday
night through Monday. Models in good agreement. Main item of
uncertainty is how many showers are able to form Monday
afternoon.

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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level ridge that had been centered just off to our west
moves roughly over the state Tuesday/Wednesday. While we can`t
rule out isolated afternoon showers, the weather should remain
quiet with above average temperatures and a good amount of sun.
Ridge slowly breaks down toward Thursday/Friday, but model
agreement falls apart as to how fast and dramatically the ridge
breaks down. The general model trend has been for dry weather
hanging on longer than before. We could see some increased
shower activity Thursday, but more likely it should hold off
until Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. Gusty nw winds will diminish this
evening before increasing again from the north after 15z
Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Generally VFR Saturday night through Wednesday. Winds
generally less than 10 kts and variable in direction.

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.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain well below small craft levels
tonight and Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas easily below small craft Saturday
night through Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/Buster
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Bloomer/Buster/Foisy
Marine...Bloomer/Buster/Foisy