331
FXUS61 KCAR 171747
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
147 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will gradually shift offshore today. A disturbance
will cross the region Saturday. High pressure will move south
across the region Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM Update: A few popcorn showers have developed across
northern Somerset and northern Piscataquis counties this
afternoon as a weak shortwave passes west of the forecast area.
With 100-200 J/kg CAPE in this area, there could be an isolated
thunderstorm late this afternoon as these showers continue to
tower. A line of cumulus can be seen along the sea breeze just
moving north of the coast this afternoon. Only a few of these
clouds will tower enough for showers.

Previous Discussion...
The frontal boundary that has produced showers and
thunderstorms in recent days will continue to move offshore.
This will result in a less pronounced seabreeze today versus
yesterday. However, the next longwave trough will be approaching
from the west. This will be enough to bring back the threat of
afternoon showers.

The greatest threat of showers will be west of Route 11 into the
North Woods. However, a few showers cannot be ruled out anywhere
from the Bangor region northward. With little instability,
thunder is not expected today. Most of these showers will end
this evening with the loss of daytime heating. The exception
may be near the Quebec border where there could still be a few
showers tonight. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s
inland, with 60s at the coast. Lows tonight will be in the lower
to mid 50s, except 40s along the water.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
At the surface, high pressure centered near Labrador will ridge
across the region Saturday while low pressure tracks south of
the Gulf of Maine. Aloft, an upper level disturbance will begin
to move east across the region Saturday. Uncertainty still
exists regarding the interaction between the disturbance and the
northern edge of the moisture field from the low tracking south
of the Gulf of Maine. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a
chance of showers across the region Saturday. However, if more
significant interaction occurs between the disturbance and
moisture field then more extensive showers and possibly a
steadier rain could occur across mostly Downeast areas. The
disturbance will exit across the Maritimes Saturday night, while
surface ridging persists. Will still have a chance of showers
early Saturday night, with shower chances then decreasing
overnight. Surface ridging persists Sunday, with upper level
ridging also building toward the region. Could still have the
slight chance of a shower early Sunday across southeast portions
of the forecast area with the exiting system. Otherwise, expect
a mostly cloudy/partly sunny morning with clouds then
decreasing during the afternoon. Surface/upper level ridging
cross the region Sunday night with partly cloudy/mostly clear
skies. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures
are expected Saturday/Sunday. The coolest temperatures are
expected along the Downeast coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The surface ridge begins to move south Monday, while an
approaching disturbance begins to flatten the upper ridge.
Expect partly sunny skies along with a slight chance of showers
across northern areas Monday, with partly/mostly sunny skies
Downeast. The disturbance will move north of the region Monday
night, keeping partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance
of showers across northern areas and partly cloudy/mostly clear
skies Downeast. Uncertainty then develops Tuesday into
Wednesday regarding the strength and persistence of the upper
ridge. A stronger ridge would help limit shower chances
Tuesday/Wednesday. A weaker ridge could allow disturbances to
more easily cross the region with better shower chances. Due to
the uncertainty, have kept only a slight chance/chance of showers
Tuesday into Wednesday with partly cloudy skies. A frontal
system could then cross the region Thursday with a chance of
showers. Temperatures will remain at above normal levels Monday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR cigs will continue across all terminals through
tonight and into Saturday morning. Cigs will begin to drop
towards MVFR at Downeast terminals late Saturday morning as rain
showers move into the area. Northern terminals will likely
remain VFR through the day on Saturday. Winds E to SE at 5 to 10
kts during the day, and light and variable overnight.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. Decreasing shower chances.
Northeast/east winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...Occasional MVFR with a slight chance of showers early.
Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Monday through Monday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of
showers north. VFR Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday...Uncertainty dependent on potential low pressure.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wave heights around 4 feet today and tonight on the
outer waters. However, seas are not expected to build above
Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Winds remain well
below SCA levels today and tonight. Patchy fog could reduce
visibility on the waters this morning and again tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Saturday through Sunday night. Showers Saturday into Saturday
night. Patchy fog Saturday into early Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Clark
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...AStrauser/Clark/Norcross
Marine...AStrauser/Clark/Norcross