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432
FXUS61 KCLE 291929
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
329 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level low departs tonight and Thursday. High pressure
settles into the Great Lakes for Thursday through Saturday.
Upper level trough arrives late Saturday into Saturday night.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Low/mid level f-gen is rotating southeastward out of our CWA and is
being replaced by convection firing in southern Ontario, moving
southward across Lake Erie. Will lose the instability from 23Z
onward or so, and expect the coverage of the convection to be on the
wane during and after that time frame. Meanwhile, column will really
start to dry out into the overnight and will see clearing skies
during this part of the forecast. The upper level trough will
finally exit Thursday with little fanfare given the lack of any
layer humidity and should see a largely cloudless day as surface
high pressure settles into the Great Lakes. Still dealing with the
cooler airmass with this Canadian high pressure prior to any warm
air advection which will be further down the line in the forecast.
Low dewpoint air, clearing skies, and gradually easing winds allow
temperatures to drop into the 40s tonight, 50s lakeshore areas.
Areas east of NW OH will have trouble reaching the 70F mark once
again Thursday, and with good radiational cooling conditions once
again Thursday night, 40s expected again, and possibly even upper
30s in the valleys of NW PA in the eastern portions of the
county.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Mid to upper level ridging and accompanying surface high pressure
will remain over the Great Lakes region to end the week and begin
the weekend. We`ll be dry and seasonable on Friday under southerly
flow. The upper ridge will gradually build to the east through the
day on Saturday as a shortwave aloft approaches from the west. At
the surface, low pressure centered over the Great Plains will lift
northeast toward the Lower Great Lakes by Saturday evening. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday afternoon and
evening from west to east as the low approaches.

Highs on Friday will be near normal in the mid 70s with cool
overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. High temperatures on
Saturday will be slightly warmer as they rise into the upper 70s to
near 80 degrees with overnight lows slightly above normal in the
upper 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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We`ll undergo another period of active weather through the long term
period as multiple shortwaves will cross through the region.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible through
the end of the long term period. Temperatures through the long term
will remain above normal with highs reaching the mid 80s and lows
settling in the mid 60s by the end of the period.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Concentrated area of showers is now rotating to the southeast
and should be out of the region in a few hours, but the pivot
point of this is in eastern OH, so expecting showers with
restrictions and embedded thunder in some of the eastern
terminals like YNG and CAK. Once this exits, ceilings should
come back above 3kft to the VFR threshold along with any
visibility issues from the precipitation. Meanwhile, showers and
storms moving north to south are forming in southern Ontario and
are pushing across Lake Erie. This necessitates VCTS/CB through
around 22Z for certain TAF sites. Clouds exit after 00Z Thursday
and the remainder of the TAFs are largely cloud free with winds
under 10kts out of the north as high pressure settles into the
Great Lakes.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return Saturday night into Sunday in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
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A surface trough will remain draped over the lake through tonight
before high pressure builds overhead from the northwest. Northerly
flow 15-20 knots across the lake will allow for waves to build to 4-
6 feet. As such, a Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement
has been issued for nearshore zones and adjacent counties overnight
tonight to highlight the high swim risk and heightened threat for
rip currents.

Generally northerly flow will persist through the day Thursday as
the high continues to build overhead. Winds turn light and variable
through Friday before becoming southeasterly at 10-15 knots by
Saturday afternoon ahead of our next low pressure system. Winds turn
southwesterly by Sunday behind the low while remaining between 10
and 15 knots. With the exception of the overnight period tonight,
waves should remain below 3 knots through the weekend and start of
next week.
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&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 PM EDT this evening through
     late tonight for OHZ009>012.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Thursday for LEZ144>147.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Iverson